Your London KY Weather

Sunday Severe Weather Live Blog

2010-05-02T09:43:00.001-04:00

Hello everyone, parts of Southeastern KY are currently under a tornado watch as well as a flash flood watch. Going ahead and posting up the live tools and I'll send out a tweet and FB status in case something moves into Laurel or the surrounding counties.

Live Broadcasting by Ustream

Severe Wx Moving Out

2010-04-25T01:40:00.000-04:00

Had some incredible severe weather over south eastern KY. The worst of it is moving out and now we're left with scattered showers and gusty winds until the cold front passes. I hope you enjoyed the severe weather coverage today. I'm worn out after it so to bed with me. Take care until next time!

Live Severe Weather Blog 2 PM

2010-04-24T12:13:00.009-04:00

15
Latest local radar from Accuweather:

6:15 Update: Blog going live at 7:30 to track severe weather as it moves into eastern KY. Radar starting to act up a bit again but hopefully it will be worked out as we move into the evening.

4:15 PM Update: I'm hoping the rain we're seeing will help lessen the severe threat for later. However have to keep an eye out now for flash flooding.

2:00 PM Update: Live blog going to be postponed till we actually have severe weather in the area. Still having some issues with my GR Level 3 Radar updating. I will be posting here, on twitter @wxmanshane, and at Chris Bailey's weather blog (Link on the left hand side.)

1:35: Looks like a violent tornado rolled through the town of Yazoo, MS. Trained spotters on the ground reporting EF-4 damage. 1st line of showers moving into south eastern KY right now. These could have some gusty winds and lightning with them.

1:00 Update: Radar streams of level 3 data (What I use for my Radar stream) is overloaded. The last image to come in is almost 50 minutes old now. Also The Weather Channel reports of 30 homes being destroyed in Eagle Bend, Mississippi. Major tornado likely heading towards Yahoo City, MS.

12:50 Update: High Risk zone from SPC has been expanded to include portions of south central and western KY. Tornado Watch for that area coming soon.

Hey everyone, looks like severe weather will be heading our way later today. I'm going ahead and getting everything set up for a Live Severe Weather Blog to start at 2 PM. If the severe weather is not in our area by that point it will be pushed back but I wanted to go ahead and get everything set up and ready.

Live Broadcasting by Ustream

You can see live updating radar in the top box. I'm going to leave the latest from SPC down below:

Severe Weather Possible Saturday

2010-04-23T14:57:00.002-04:00

Hey everyone! I'm back with my thoughts on the potential for severe weather this weekend.

Thoughts outside of the video and summary:
*I think south eastern KY will see a few severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The majority of torandic activity stays west of us tomorrow, but not going to rule out a few storms going tornadic tomorrow.
*The main threats will be damaging winds, large hail, intense lightning and heavy rain.
*Some minor urban and stream flooding will be possible as we could see some heavy rains add up by Sunday morning. Here's HPC's thoughts on potential rainfall through Monday morning. However we need to rain, London is 4.66"s behind where it should be this time of year as of this morning.

My thoughts on the timeline of events:
*A few stray showers and thunderstorms are possible over night tonight and early Saturday morning.
*By mid morning we catch a break in the action and will likely see some sunshine into early afternoon.
*By early afternoon *Say after 2 PM* we could see a few stray storms fire, these will have the best chance to produce large hail and tornadoes.
*Depending on how many of these stray showers pop will determine a bit of the impact of the main line of storms which moves through in the evening hours *Say after 6:30-7:00 PM*
*The line of storms moving through will drop heavy rain, have strong winds, lots of lightning and could spin up an isolated short lived twister.

I will take the blog live tomorrow afternoon here via Ustream with live up to the minute radar with analysis from me on any severe storms that enter Laurel or the surrounding counties. I will also have a chat going where you can ask questions and I'll answer. Until then keep an eye on the skies and turn those weather radios on. Take care!

Severe Weather Moving Out

2010-03-12T17:07:00.007-05:00

Severe Weather is moving out of the blog's coverage area. I want to thank everyone that stopped by the live blog as we tested it out for the first day today. It is something I will do as often as possible when severe weather is moving through the area.

However we've seen some heavy rain over the last few hours and some local steams and creeks could come out of their banks. Keep an eye on water levels in you live in a flood prone area.

We could see more rain tonight as low pressure continues to cross the area. Here's Radar to track any more rain we see tonight:

Thanks once again for stopping by the old weather blog. I'll have updates as needed. Look for regular updates to begin again next Wednesday.

Live Severe Weather Blog

2010-03-12T14:41:00.002-05:00

Live video chat by Ustream

If you have problems viewing go to Ustream

Sever Thunderstorms Possible Today

2010-03-12T12:25:00.004-05:00

Hello everyone! After a week of gorgeous weather things are about to get pretty active across south eastern KY. A severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for Laurel and all surrounding counties until 7 PM:

Here's a look at the latest local radar imagery where you can track the storms approach:

Satellite Imagery is showing a lot of cloud cover over the area... hopefully this will help limit instability and prevent the storms from becoming too strong:

If things start breaking loose this afternoon I MIGHT be trying out something I've wanted to do for a while with a live streaming Severe Weather Blog. We'll see if it is warranted and if I can actually pull it off. Until then stay weather aware and I will have more updates through the afternoon.

BTW: New Twitter Account: www.twitter.com/LondonKYweather

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

2010-03-12T12:19:00.001-05:00

A severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for Laurel and all surround counties in South Eastern KY until 7PM. I will have a break down of what's to come with in the hour.

Wonderful Weekend Weather

2010-03-05T14:00:00.001-05:00

It's going to be an awesome weekend in southeastern KY this weekend, here's the latest video weather blog:

You can track temperatures this weekend on the left hand side of the page via KY Mesonet.

2010-03-02T14:32:00.002-05:00

Welcome to your Tuesday here on the old blog. Today light snow showers and wintry mix has been the main weather features. That should continue off and on until Thursday.

Here's today's Video Blog:

*Still working on audio issues and getting things straightened out.

Southern Storm, Southern Snows?

2010-03-01T17:03:00.002-05:00

Hey guys, testing some new video software today :

Highlights:

-Light Rain/Snow possible tomorrow through Thursday. Rain at day, snow at night.
-Much Warmer Weather heading our way for this weekend.
-Winter is not quite over yet...

Finally Friday

2010-02-26T17:42:00.002-05:00

Hello everyone! After an extended hiatus the blog is back with another post to give you some heads up about what's going on in the world of south eastern KY weather. We have some snow heading our way and you can track it right here on radar.

No watches or warnings for us in London and Laurel county and the surrounding areas. Not going to see enough snow to warrant and advisory but we could pick up an inch or two.

Here's the latest temperatures:

Winds:

Wind Chills:
Here's what the NAM is saying about how much snow we could see by tomorrow evening:

So maybe an inch or two is possible.

Here's a quick 5-day forecast for London, KY for you!:

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with snow showers. Low of 24, High of 34.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a few spotty flurries in the morning... becoming partly cloudy later. Low of 26, High of 38.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, Low of 22, High of 42.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain/snow. Low of 29, High of 36.

Wednesday: Chance of snow, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low of 24, High of 35.

Things to come:

-Keeping an eye on the middle of next to see how the next major storm system is going to evolve... right now we could get a glancing blow from this storm which could create March snow showers.
- No end to the cold and wet pattern at least through mid march, long range models and indicies continue to indicate ridging over the western US with a general trough pattern in the eastern US, which means cold and active weather for us.
-On a personal note, I'm working on a few things for the blog including:
*New style of video blog: Very similar to the style Accuweather does.
*Possibly expanding the coverage area of the blog.
*Inclusion of up to date weather graphics to make this a one stop weather shop.
*New Twitter account exclusive for this blog.
*New web adress.

So that's what's going on with me and the blog. Until next time, Take Care!

Quick Sunday Update

2010-02-14T13:01:00.004-05:00

9 PM Update:

Everything looks to be on track, snow should start in our area of SE KY starting tomorrow morning around 3 AM for the heaviest of snows. More on this storm tomorrow, post what the weather is doing in your back yard in the comments section!

PREVIOUS UPDATE:

Hey everyone, a quick update on our winter storm which should start tonight. Still feeling pretty confident in my call map with just a few tweaks.

This map is a compromise between the GFS and NAM. I think the GFS has the better handle on the overall set up, but I believe the NAM is handling the potential for upslope snow better than the GFS.

Remember things should start in SE KY later on this evening, here's radar and temps:

Here's things to watch for today:

-Temps might get above freezing but I believe this should be mainly a snow even with a little rain mixed in.
-Keep an eye out tomorrow morning as the surface low crosses the state for it to tap the Gulf of Mexico for moisture and rapidly intensify. This will likely cause some heavy snow bands to set up and where they set up determines who gets the most snow.
-You will likely wake up with around 1-3"s on the ground tomorrow morning, remember this is a long duration event.
-Lake enhanced upslope starts tomorrow night and could last all the way into Thursday.
-Watching the potential for another winter storm next weekend.

Okay it's time for the Daytona 500, I'll have another quick update afterwards.

Another Winter Storm...

2010-02-13T15:15:00.003-05:00

Snow continues across parts of eastern KY this hour, but it's just an appetizer for whats to come.

The hits just keep on coming for southern KY this year, today a video blog updating the winter storm threat for tomorrow:

And totals:

I'll have more tomorrow.

I Like This Winter... It's Exciting

2010-02-11T13:49:00.005-05:00

To quote a line from the most recent adaption of Star Trek, this winter has been nothing short of historic across the eastern half of the US. We've seen some decent snowfall's this winter, enough to definitely run the school calendar back into June, and it looks like the hits are going to keep on coming. Let's talk about what's heading our way for Sunday into Monday. Today's model of choice for showing the situation is the GFS:

Sunday Afternoon:

Monday Early Morning:

Monday Late Morning:

Monday Afternoon:

So here's what's looking to be heading our way. A low pressure system will come out of Canada over the weekend and head towards the Ohio Valley this weekend. As it approaches it begins to intensify and tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture as it moves in KY. We already have an Arctic air mass and snow pack in place so temperatures will be cold enough for an all snow event. This storm is likely be under played at the surface right now as upper level dynamics look awesome to say the least. With upper level dynamics look so well and temperatures being very cold, and gulf moisture getting pulled into the equation, you are looking at a recipe for a possible solid snowstorm for most of KY. Here's what the latest GFS accumulation map looks like through Tuesday morning at 7 AM:

However, I think this map might be under doing totals and might be a bit to far north with where it wants to set up the heaviest band of precipitation. Let's look at what the storm is looking like it would drop if it we're all liquid.

That map shows between a quarter inch and half inch of liquid from Sunday to Tuesday morning. Now following the old ten to one rule, that'd be a good 2-5" snow for most of KY. However... with the air being as cold as it going to with this storm... snowfall ratios will likely start at 10:1 but end possibly as high as 25:1. If that happens you could tack a good extra 2-4"s on to that number if not more. This is a situation that I will closely be monitoring over the next couple of days. Until then take care.

Winter Storm Part Deux

2010-02-09T13:56:00.005-05:00

WED 2 PM Update:

Snow continues to fall at an incredible rate across SE KY, even more than I thought was going to roll through. I've heard reports of up to 6"s in Whitley and Laurel counties. This is an impressive event to say the least and I got burned a bit by it. Oh well, live, learn, and do better next time. I'll have more later, but for now enjoy the snow!

Welcome back and hope you are having a wonderful Tuesday. This morning started off with a bit of wintry precipitation across southeastern KY, but quickly changed to a cold February rain. Well for you winter lovers, there is nothing worse than 35 degree rain. Well fret not, we're only half way through this winter storm, and now we wait for part two. We're going to do a traditional blog instead of a video blog today.

Here's a look at the national radar to watch as the snow should start filling in the Ohio valley from northwest to southeast as winds shift out of the northwest due to a upper level low pressure system passes through our neck of the woods. These two factors together should create a decent snowfall event for much of Kentucky starting tonight and lasting until Thursday morning.

Keep an eye on local temperatures as an Arctic Cold front is passing through the area as we speak. They should begin to rapidly drop in the next few hours. One thing we will have to watch for is refreezing of water on local roadways.

The NAM model shows snow starting tonight around Midnight for us and keeping it around through Thursday morning:

Wed Early Morning:

Wed Evening:

Thu Morning:
The GFS is showing decent snowfall totals for us, while the NAM isn't which is a bit confusing considering the NAM is showing precip over the area and it will most definitely be cold enough for snow.

NAM:

GFS:

So here's my thoughts for Totals through Thurs evening:

So most of SE KY gets an additional 1-3"s with the mountains of eastern KY getting 2-5". Tomorrow will be very windy, cold and blustery with blowing snow so be careful while traveling and make sure to stay warm. Wind Chills could go below zero tomorrow night so be on the look out for that. We'll have more on how things are playing out and a look at the extended range forecast tomorrow, so until then take care!

Watching a Winter Storm

2010-02-08T14:58:00.004-05:00

Hey folks, we're set for another winter storm across parts of SE KY. Here's a vlog to break it all down.

Here's my totals map:

Radar to track the wintry mess, and temperatures as they will play a big part in what we see tomorrow.

2:30 AM UPDATE:

Well folks my concerns about ice don't look like it's going to play out. Should mainly be a cold rain for folks east of Glasgow and south of Mount Vernon. We've got too much warm air at the surface right now and it looks like it won't be kicked up until our arctic front arrives. Snow is still possible tonight through Wednesday.

Umbrella's Needed Tomorrow

2010-02-04T15:48:00.003-05:00

Hey everyone, thanks for stopping by the old weather blog. Today another Vlog to talk about this weekend's system:

Here's a quick break down of the 5-day forecast:

Fri: Rain showers likely, could be heavy at times. Low: 33 High:38

Sat: Wintry mix just before and after midnight changing to all snow by dawn. Low: 27 High:33

Sun: Clouds decreasing throughout the day. Low 23 High: 30

Mon: Mostly sunny during the day with snow possible at night. Low: 21 High: 33

Tues: Wintry Mix possible, looking mainly snow at this time. Low: 28, High: 34.

Here's a look at Tuesday according to the japanese forecasting model, winter lovers enjoy the eye candy.

This is a storm to keep an eye on as it could yield some decent snowfall totals for southern KY. We'll have more on it over the weekend. Until next time, take care!

Wintry Rains?

2010-02-03T14:58:00.002-05:00

My latest update on the storm system to affect southeastern KY this weekend. Bust out the umbrellas, it's looking soggy.

A Look Ahead Vlog

2010-02-01T16:43:00.001-05:00

Welcome back to the old weather blog! Hope you had a wonderful day, my day has been a bit long so to keep from typing we're going Vlog style today:

Snow Recap and a Look Ahead

2010-01-31T13:26:00.006-05:00

Welcome back to the blog for a snow recap and a look ahead at the next 5-days. I hope everyone had fun in the snow yesterday and didn't end up too cold this morning. Here's a Recap of the big snow event from the National Weather Service in Jackson:

HARLAN.......10 INCHES...16 INCHES ON BLACK MOUNTAIN
WAYNE........8 INCHES
JOHNSON......7 INCHES
FLOYD........7 INCHES
PIKE.........7 INCHES
WHITLEY......7 INCHES
MARTIN.......6 TO 8 INCHES
LETCHER......6 TO 8 INCHES
KNOTT........6 TO 8 INCHES
BELL.........6 TO 8 INCHES
LESLIE.......6 TO 7 INCHES
JACKSON......6 INCHES
LAUREL.......6 INCHES
LEE..........6 INCHES
BREATHITT....6 INCHES
ESTILL.......6 INCHES
MAGOFFIN.....6 INCHES
CLAY.........6 INCHES
ROCKCASTLE...6 INCHES
POWELL.......5 TO 7 INCHES
PULASKI......5 TO 6 INCHES
MCCREARY.....5 INCHES
KNOX.........5 INCHES
OWSLEY.......5 INCHES
PERRY........5 INCHES
WOLFE........5 INCHES
MORGAN.......4 INCHES
MENIFEE......4 INCHES
ELLIOTT......3 TO 6 INCHES
BATH.........2 INCHES
MONTGOMERY...2 INCHES
FLEMING......2 INCHES
ROWAN........1 INCH

So let's see how this compared to the final call forecast map:

And here's a look back at my first call map:

So overall I think I did a decent enough job with this storm. So let's look ahead to the next five days:

Monday: Mostly sunny, Low of 10, High of 38.

Tuesday: Chance of snow or wintry mix, otherwise M. Cloudy. Low of 27, High of 40.

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny with a Low of 25, High of 42.

Thursday: Mostly Sunny with a low of 27, High of 43

Friday: Chance of rain and or snow showers. Low of 30 High of 36 .

And now all I turns towards the end of next week and next weekend, for the possibility of another southern storm... does this one bring us snow, rain, or the stuff we don't like to talk about? Well it depends on which model you ask.

GFS:

Canadian:

Euro:
All of them want to start the event as rain on Friday, but there are some differences in how it ends. We will talk about that tomorrow, until then take care.

Snowy Saturday

2010-01-30T07:44:00.004-05:00

Good morning everyone and welcome to your snowy Saturday morning across southeastern KY! Here's a look at the current radar.

As you can see we still have a bit of snow to go in southeastern KY, probably another 4 hours or so. So my time line is playing out fairly well although the storm is moving a bit faster than I originially anticipated so it should wrap up soon than I expected in my posts on Thursday and Yesterday.

I would love to hear how much snow you have in your yard this morning, post your totals up in the comments section!

In the mean time here's your 5-day forecast for London KY:

Saturday: Snow showers wrap up and we should see some clearing overnight. High today of 26.

Sunday: Mostly Sunny but bitter cold in the morning. Low of 6, High of 28.

Monday: Mostly sunny, Low of 7, High of 33.

Tuesday: Chance of snow or wintry mix, otherwise M. Cloudy. Low of 27, High of 36.

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny with a Low of 25, High of 37.

More updates coming up later in the day!

And Now... We Wait

2010-01-29T18:46:00.006-05:00

Good evening everyone just stopping by with a quick update on the snow situation going across the area.

As you can see snow is spreading over southern KY as we speak. I've already heard reports of dusting to an inch in most of south eastern KY. So far my time line from yesterday looks spot on track. Here it is again in case you missed it:

Friday Early Afternoon: Snow should start in Western KY including Bowling Green early afternoon, we will likely experience a period of Virga before the snow actually starts reaching the ground as the air will be very dry as our storm moves in.

Friday Night (After 6:00PM): Snow should be going across most of southern KY by this point, once again it will take a bit for it to get going as the atmosphere will have to moisten up a bit before the snow will hit the ground.

Friday Late (Around Midnight): Heavy snow across most of Southern KY, snow going at this point near the I-64 corridor. Snow getting going at moderate rates across the coal fields of WV. Areas seeing heavy snow at this time could see near white out conditions and along the TN, KY border you could see snowfall rates of 1-2"s per hour.

Saturday Morning (Around dawn): Moderate to heavy snow wrapping up in bowling green but continuing points east to include all of southern WV at this point. Many roads will likely be covered in many areas south of I-64 at this point.

Saturday Mid-day: Heaviest snow now located in far-eastern KY and most of southern WV. Snow really lightening up west of I-65. Light to moderate snowfall continues for area west of I-75 to I-65 through the late evening.

Saturday Evening: Flurries and light snow west of I-75, east of I-75 to the KY/WV/VA border, light to moderate snow, moderate snow hanging tough in southern WV.

Sunday Morning: Snow lingers in WV mountains, while most of southern KY wakes up to clear skies and temperatures in the single digits or possibly below zero.

So time line looks to be on track, however my totals from earlier might have been too conservative. Here's a look at the latest NAM and GFS snowfall totals:

NAM:

GFS:

The NAM is the preferred model this late in the game because of it's higher resolution. Also a great model to look at is the SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast), Let's see what it's latest run has to see for what would normally fall as liquid.

That's showing around .75"-1.00" liquid over much of our area. The snow will likely be falling at something higher than the normal 10-1 frozen to liquid ratio... probably something between 12-1 and 15-1 because of the cold air in place. So we're talking based off the SREF parts of our area could see snowfall totals of 9-15"s! Here is my final call map:

Just some minor tweaks but nothing major as far as southern KY goes. The area to watch is the I-64 corridor in KY. There is some serious dry air in place up there and it's not budging as of now. Until the atmosphere get's moistened up the snow won't fall. 20 miles will make a difference between who get's a ton of snow, and who could see next to none, and it might be the saving grace for some Meteorologists forecasts. So that does it for now. Enjoy the snow and be careful out there, might be a good idea to enjoy just a fun day relaxing indoors tomorrow with your family or playing in the snow. I'll have more updates as needed, until then take care.

PS: Post your snowfall totals in my comments section with your name and city and I'll plot em up in Google Earth to see how my forecast pans out.

Quick Morning Update

2010-01-29T08:51:00.003-05:00

Hey everyone, everything seems to be on track for snowfall across southern KY this Friday. Just got done looking at some of the newest model data and I've tweaked my snow map just a bit.

Third Call for Snowfall Totals:

Main areas changed are around I-64 and down in to TN. Here's a radar to track the snows and be sure to keep an eye on the temps and dew points... once the dew points gets with in a few degrees of the air temperature the snow should actually start hitting the ground. Here's temps and dew points courtesy of the KY mesonet, and radar courtesy Intellicast.

Radar:

Temperatures:

Dewpoints:

Thursday- Just 24 Hours Left

2010-01-28T14:24:00.009-05:00

Welcome back to the old weather blog and thank you for checking out my blog the last couple of days as I've shared my opinion about the upcoming snowstorm. We had over 400 visits yesterday, and that's not even including all my friends viewing through Facebook! We're right around 24 hours away from the onset of the potential big one for southern KY (and a whole lot of other folks for that matter including my neighborhood in southern WV.) I suspect a whole lot of people are about to have a bad day, much like one of my favorite TV characters.

No we wont' be thwarting terrorist plots or dodging tactical nuclear explosions, but we will be dealing with the largest snowfall parts of southern KY have seen in several years. Most of Southern KY is now under Winter Storm Warnings or Watches, here's the main impacts you can expect from the storm:

*Travel is going to be messy Friday night- Sunday AM for south central and south eastern KY and from after midnight Friday in southern WV. Road Crews will likely have a hard time keeping up roads during parts of the storm.
*Power Outages shouldn't be a widespread problem, but could be an issue in areas already rocked hard by our large December snowstorm.
*Just be prepared to possibly be shut in for a day or two since travel on side roads will likely be quite hazardous even after the storm passes.
*Extreme cold air will move in behind this storm.

So there's the headlines of what to expect, now here's the break down via the Canadian forecasting model of how things should play out.

Friday Morning:

Friday Afternoon:

Friday Night:

Saturday Early Morning:

Saturday Late Morning:

Saturday Afternoon:

Saturday Evening:

Sunday Morning:

Okay I'm going to break this down in a time-line of events according to the model:

Friday Early Afternoon: Snow should start in Western KY including Bowling Green early afternoon, we will likely experience a period of Virga before the snow actually starts reaching the ground as the air will be very dry as our storm moves in.

Friday Night (After 6:00PM): Snow should be going across most of southern KY by this point, once again it will take a bit for it to get going as the atmosphere will have to moisten up a bit before the snow will hit the ground.

Friday Late (Around Midnight): Heavy snow across most of Southern KY, snow going at this point near the I-64 corridor. Snow getting going at moderate rates across the coal fields of WV. Areas seeing heavy snow at this time could see near white out conditions and along the TN, KY border you could see snowfall rates of 1-2"s per hour.

Saturday Morning (Around dawn): Moderate to heavy snow wrapping up in bowling green but continuing points east to include all of southern WV at this point. Many roads will likely be covered in many areas south of I-64 at this point.

Saturday Mid-day: Heaviest snow now located in far-eastern KY and most of southern WV. Snow really lightening up west of I-65. Light to moderate snowfall continues for area west of I-75 to I-65 through the late evening.

Saturday Evening: Flurries and light snow west of I-75, east of I-75 to the KY/WV/VA border, light to moderate snow, moderate snow hanging tough in southern WV.

Sunday Morning: Snow lingers in WV mountains, while most of southern KY wakes up to clear skies and temperatures in the single digits or possibly below zero:

By Sunday afternoon, highs go generally in the low 20's for southern KY and WV and mid 20s for around I-64 north in KY.

So there's your time line of events for how I think this is going to play out. Now let's start talking totals, first I'm going to give you the latest GFS and NAM totals.

GFS:

NAM:

As you can see both models showing a fairly solid hit for southern KY and WV, with at least 5"s of snow being very likely. Now we're going to do something I normally don't do and I've ever seen done before on a weather blog. There's a program most meteorologists use called BUFKIT that allows to read model data in a graphical form for a specific city. One of it's nifty features is you can load up data from the NAM and GFS, and then run an algorithm on how much snowfall that city would see according to that model run. Here's what the NAM and GFS are showing snowfall wise for some selected regional cities, plotted on Goggle earth.

I think the map is fairly self explanatory, but just to make sure you understand, the total by the N is the NAM's take on snowfall, the G is the GFS. But enough about models, time for my second call!

As you can see I moved the 5-10" line south of Lexington just a bit and added a swath of 2-6"s just north of Lexington. I still think these lines could shift a bit more before all is said and done but I'm fairly confident in their general location. Like several other weather sources have said, 50 miles will make all the difference with this storm. You can watch this bad boy as it moves towards our area on the radar below, and see the latest watches and warnings as well. Another update coming tomorrow, until then take care!

Snowfall First Call!

2010-01-27T16:31:00.002-05:00

The moment you have been waiting for is here! My first call snowfall totals:

As you can see, most of Southern KY is picking up on 5-10"s as of now. Winter Storm Watches just went up for most of the state.

Here's a video blog to explain the entire situation:

More updates tomorrow! Take care until then!

Winter Storm Update

2010-01-27T07:30:00.005-05:00

Good morning everyone and welcome to your Wednesday, 48 hours from what could possibly be a major winter storm to affect southeastern KY. It's time to get you caught up on what's happened with the models since my video blog yesterday and to start to talk some totals. Lets start out by mapping out the latest run of the GFS.

Thursday Morning:

Friday Morning:

Friday Evening:

Saturday Morning:

So here's how it all looks to play out. A weak cold front moves through the area tomorrow, possibly bringing us some light rain or snow showers. The main thing it will do to set the stage for our winter storm on Friday is to usher in some colder air. By late Friday morning snow showers should fire up along a frontal boundary ahead of the actual low pressure system. Where this boundary sets up is critical to the entire storm and how much of what we'll see. If it sets up just to our south over say middle Tennessee, we should see some heavy snow fall accumulation. If it sets up say along the Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama border, we would see less snowfall. If by some odd chance it sets up say on top of us, that would lead to some icing concerns. Right now all the model data is keeping the boundary setting up to our south, so it looks like we'll see snow, the question is how much. 50 miles can make all the difference in this kind of set up, so I will be keeping an eye on the track over the next two days. Here is the latest predictions for snowfall form the 6z NAM and GFS models.

NAM:

GFS:

Notice the GFS is going just a bit heavier than the NAM on totals, but both are showing a good hit for Southern Kentucky. I think right now the best snow fall accumulations will set up somewhere between I-40 in Tennessee and I-64 in Kentucky. The question is exactly where that heavy snow band sets up. As far as southern Kentucky goes, right now I would say we will likely see somewhere between 6-12"s. I will put a first official call map out later this afternoon after I get a chance to look at all the 12z model data. That update should come sometime between 3-6 this afternoon, and will likely be accompanied by a video blog. That's all for now, take care and we will talk again soon!

PS: For my friends in West Virginia reading this from Facebook: I think most of southern WV sees at least 6"s of snow from this, you'll see my first call map a bit earlier today on WOAY @ Noon.

Possible Winter Storm for End of the Week

2010-01-26T01:34:00.003-05:00

Here's a Video Blog of my thoughts on the upcoming winter storm to possibly affect our area Friday into Saturday.

I apologize if the audio is a little low. I'll have more updates on this storm throughout the week.

Snowfall Forecast for Thurs-Sat AM

2010-01-06T20:12:00.002-05:00

An impressive winter storm is heading towards eastern KY tomorrow. Here's my take on how much snow you can expect.

Snowstorm Potential!

2009-12-17T15:14:00.004-05:00

Rising like the phoenix from the ashes... or like Godzilla coming out of the sea, the blog is back and ready to take some names because we have a snow storm heading out way.

Let's get right down to business shall we? A big time low pressure is firing up in the deep south as I type this, and will head our way. It's bringing a lot of moisture our way, but we already have cold air in place... that's a recipe for some winter fun and games.

Let's show you what my good friend the 12z NAM is showing for us.

Friday Night:

Saturday AM:

Saturday PM:

That's showing a big time snow storm rolling across southern KY and Southern WV. Let's take a look at how much snow I think we're going to see:

These totals are subject to change I feel confident as far as KY goes... WV could go higher especially around Beckley and Oak Hill. I was taking tomorrow off but I'm back on the air tomorrow morning. Good luck everyone and hope you get as much snow as you want!

Update: Winter Storm Watches now up for parts of Eastern KY!

Severe Weather

2009-10-09T16:06:00.001-04:00

Severe weather moving through the area as we speak. Updates on my twitter page. @wxmanshane!

Soggy Pattern Continues

2009-09-16T12:27:00.003-04:00

Good afternoon one and all! Thanks for stopping by the old blog. I have some time before training resumes today so here's a quick blog to update the forecast, we're going text style today!

Today: We still have to watch for a chance of showers moving in from the south. Highs today in the mid 70s.

Thursday: We'll start the day off cloudy with a chance of showers, and keep that forecast all day. Lows in the low 60s, Highs in the low to mid 70s.

Friday: Scattered Showers still possible. Lows in the mid 60s, highs in the mid 70s.

Saturday: We still keep a chance of showers around, lows in the mid 60s, highs in the mid 70s.

Sunday: Better chance of showers, lows in the mid 60s, highs in the low to mid 70s.

So there ya have it. Looking pretty soggy across southern KY this week. It won't be raining all the time, but you'll want to have your umbrella with you when showers move in. I'm keeping an eye on mid next week for a big time cool down.

Here's a radar to keep an eye on the rain.

Well talk again in the next day or so. Until then take care... and enjoy this little bit of weather humor (I didn't make this).

Kanye The Weatherman:

Wet Week Ahead?

2009-09-13T19:06:00.006-04:00

Welcome back to the old blog and I hope you are having a wonderful day. Here is a look at your 5 day forecast for London, KY!

Now those of you that know me well, know I don't like slapping percentages on a 5-day. This week I felt like it would be nice to illustrate the days I thought would be the best chances of rain, which in this case are Tuesday-Thursday.

I feel like after a week of the models being lost they're finally getting a hold on what's going on and the solutions they show seem to make sense to me. We're going to show the GFS for illustration purposes.

Monday PM:

Tuesday PM:

Wednesday PM:

Thursday PM:

Friday PM:

As you can see, GFS is wanting to keep it wet for a good long work week. While I don't think we'll see non-stop showers that entire time, you're going to want to pack an umbrella around this week. Here's what the folks at HPC think about the 5 day rainfall totals.

HPC is showing us right around the 2 inch mark for most of southern KY right now. We will want to keep an eye on actual totals to see if high water could become a concern. That's all I have for now. I'm starting training on a new weather system at my tv station this week so posts will probably be short and sporadic, but I will try to at least give a brief update daily. Until next time take care!

Quick Saturday Morning Update:

2009-09-12T09:19:00.002-04:00

Sorry for the lack of an update yesterday, long work day due to having to shoot high school football last night. Here's a quick 5-day to get you going on this Saturday:

Today: Once the fog burns off we should go mostly sunny with highs near 80.

Sunday: Mostly sunny once again, highs near 80, lows in the upper 50s.

Monday: Partly sunny with a chance of scattered showers. Highs in the low 80s, lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Tuesday: A better chance of showers, otherwise mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s, lows near 60.

Wednesday: We keep the chance of showers, otherwise mostly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s, lows in the low 60s.

I'll try to get a forecast discussion tonight, but if not I'll have an extended update tomorrow. Until then take care!

Thursday Night, Not So Right

2009-09-10T19:47:00.002-04:00

Welcome back to the blog, and thanks for stopping by. Going to keep things short tonight with a text version of the 5-day forecast:

Friday: The rain from Thursday should rap up before we move into Friday. Leaving us partly cloudy with a chance at isolated showers. Low Thursday morning near 60, Highs in the upper 70s. Dense fog could develop in the over night hours.

Saturday: We're going to keep at least a small chance at an isolated shower in the forecast. I think we should stay partly to mostly sunny for the most part. Highs in the upper 70s, Lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday: We start the day mostly clear with Lows in the 50s. We go into the day with a chance of showers, especially in the afternoon. Highs around 80.

Monday: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the low to mid 60s. Highs in the low to Mid 70s.

The models continue to struggle with the current set up going into the beginning of next week. I think our chance of rain is going to come from a tropical low coming up through Texas making a b-line to the bluegrass. I'll have more tomorrow, until then take care!

Still a Chance of Showers

2009-09-09T12:51:00.005-04:00

Welcome back to the blog. Today will feature a lower chance at showers than the last few days, but we still could see a few pop up later this afternoon. Here's a radar to track any showers if they do pop.

Highs today should climb up to the low 80s. We're keeping an isolated shots of showers in the forecast now through Saturday, and you can see that on today's update 5-day forecast.

A quick break down of the next week.

-Scattered showers are still possible tomorrow, with more isolated chances Friday and Saturday.

-I lowered highs for Friday-Sunday as it does look we will get caught in a northwestern flow, which can cause more clouds and bring in cooler air.

-I think Sunday will be partly sunny with a chance of showers moving in late.

- As the cold front moves in Monday temperatures will be noticeably cooler, and the chance for heavy rain will be there.

Follow me on Twitter @WxmanShane

Long Range Discussion:

The models continue to struggle with the long range with a big time low pressure trying to cut off over the central of the nation at the end of this weekend. They've now flip flopped positions with the GFS and Euro keeping us dry at the beginning of the next week and the Canadian being the lone wolf showing frontal passage. Here's a look at the models for Monday Morning.

GFS

Euro

Canadian
So my thoughts are now a bit torn. I had agreed with the Euro and GFS for the last two days, but the Canadian is the most consistent, and it has slowed down the speed of which it was trying to move everything through. I'm going to hold steady with the forecast for now but some adjustments will be coming tomorrow depending on how the 0z runs tonight and 12z runs play out tomorrow. The models are notrious for sturggling with cut off lows and this one is going to be no exception. In other long range news here's the latest month 8-14 day outlook from the CPC.

Both maps show us staying cooler and wetter than normal, over the time period. Chris Bailey has been playing up a cool down coming in the middle of the month and the CPC agrees. Just for fun look at the 850mb Temps from the 0z GFS ensemble run this morning.

It's showing a heck of a trough digging out over the eastern half of the US. Those greens over Canada show where the freezing line is at 850 mbs (about 5000 feet up in the atmoshpere.) Could we see temperatures that cold get to the surface by the end of the month. We'll just have to wait and see.

Tropics:

Just because we have a Category 3 Hurricane out in the Atlantic, I'd figure we could go take a look at it.

Here's Hurricane Fred. Current speeds 115 mph, making it a category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Here's a look of Satellite and where the forecast models are taking him.

As you can see, looks like Fred's going to be a fish and just swim in the ocean.

Long two part post today, short update coming tomorrow since it's back to work. Take care!

Deja vu Weather

2009-09-08T13:32:00.004-04:00

It's really going to fill like deja vu out there over the next couple of days as we keep scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorm in the forecast through the end of your shortened work week. Here's a look at local radar to see if you have rain heading towards you.

Our pesky upper level low continues to chill out over the Ohio Valley. As I mentioned yesterday until it leaves the area or falls to pieces we will keep at least a chance of scattered showers in the forecast.

Forecast Discussion:

So at least for the next couple of days, weather should be fairly straight forward across the southern part of the Bluegrass State. Our upper level low hangs out until around Friday bringing us chances of scattered showers off and on throughout each day, mainly in the afternoon hours. If we can keep the cloud cover and rain away until after around 3 or 4 PM each day, our highs should make it to right around 80... if they move in and stick around a little while I think mid to upper 70's for highs. Dense fog could develop if we clear out after having rain in the afternoon like yesterday.

Now comes the fun part of the forecast with the weekend and beyond. A powerful low pressure system looks to be moving into the nations heartland this weekend and then try to cut off and become semi-stationary. The question is when does the cold front associated with it move in to effect our weather. The GFS and Euro are in decent agreement, while the poor Canadian is out in the left field. Here's a look at where they have the low come Sunday morning.

GFS

Euro

Canadian

The GFS and Euro both have the low over Nebraska Sunday morning, while the Canadian is showing it up over Canada with the trough digging in to the Ohio Valley. I'm still continuing to lean more towards the GFS and Euro solution for now... which would like me we will hold of the bulk of the showers till after the weekend.

That's all I have for now, be sure to follow me on Twitter @WxManShane! Take care!

Welcome to the Unofficial End of Summer

2009-09-07T14:02:00.006-04:00

Labor Day's been a bit soggy so far today. Here's a look at your local radar.

I think we should catch a break in the action later in the day so you might be able to squeeze in a little labor day cook out later this evening.

Here's a look at your 5-day Forecast:

Forecast Discussion:

Hey folks, long time no see. I figure as we head into the fall and winter months I'd get the old blog up and running again. As you can see in the 5-day forecast above, things are looking a bit soggy as we finish out the week and here's why.

We have a bit of an upper level disturbance over the area right now. It's providing just enough instability to spark off showers and a few thunderstorms as it sits over the area. Unfortunately there's nothing to shove this disturbance on out of the Ohio Valley, so we're stuck with it for the next few days. I don't think we see wall to wall rain, but we will see off and on showers and thunderstorms... much like the last two days.

I think by Saturday it should dissipate and leave us dry for the weekend though. Here's a look at the GFS for this weekend.

Saturday Afternoon

Sunday Afternoon

It should be noted the Canadian model is keeping us wet this weekend, but with the GFS and Euro both holding frontal passage back to Monday, I'm going to lean towards that line of thinking for now.

Before I go, HPC has a cool new product for you Google Earth users out there. They're now making their day 1-3 QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) available as a KML file, viewable in GE.

Here's a sample of what it looks like:

Here's a link to the KML products the NWS distrbutes. Click Here.

Big Time Rains Tonight

2009-07-13T00:26:00.003-04:00

So the rains came down incredibly hard tonight in parts of SE KY. Here's a pic of doppler radar rain estimates from over in Wayne County.

That shows over 8"s of rain just south west of Monticello!

Your 5-day Forecast for London KY:

Monday: Showers continue through the morning, going partly sunny later in the day. Low of 70, High of 88, and once again a very muggy day.

Tuesday: Mostly Sunny and humid, with a chance at a pop up thunderstorm. Low of 65, High near 90!

Wednesday: Partly sunny skies will give way to afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Could be on the strong to severe side. Low of 68, High of 84.

Thursday: Scattered rain showers will continue. Low of 73, High of 81.

Friday: Partly Sunny with a isolated showers possible, Low of 67, High of 83.

Sunday 5-day

2009-05-17T00:18:00.001-04:00

Sunday: A good chance of showers and thunderstorms early, with skies clearing towards the end of the day. High of 64, Low of 55.

Monday: Partly Sunny. Chilly Morning low of 39, High of 68. We could see some Valley frost Monday morning.

Tuesday: What a beautiful day! Sunny skies with a low of 37 (Once again keep an eye out for some frost in the valleys) and a high of 79.

Wednesday: Sunny, Low of 55, High of 83.

Thursday: Sunny, Low of 62, High of 85.

BTW, this is my 100th post woohoo! Thanks to everyone who stops by to see my humble opinion of the weather.

Afternoon Update

2009-05-16T14:03:00.002-04:00

Hey folks, a quick update before I head into work.

The line of thunderstorms ahead the cold front is refiring right now. Some of these could cross the severe threshold. Here is a radar to track where the storms are:

And here's the latest watches and warnings:

I'll have an updated 5 day forecast tonight.

Welcome to the Weekend!

2009-05-15T11:19:00.007-04:00

Hey ya'll. Hope you had a good week and welcome to your weekend ... well almost there! :P
It's going to be a humid weekend, with showers likely Saturday Night into Sunday Morning.

Here's your 5 day forecast for London, KY:

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, otherwise Sunny! Low of 64, High of 82.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a chance of scattered thunderstorms, best chance in the afternoon and evening. Low of 65, High of 79.

Sunday: A good chance of showers and thunderstorms early, with skies clearing towards the end of the day. High of 66, Low of 42.

Monday: Partly Sunny. Chilly Morning low of 39, High of 68. We could see some Valley frost Monday morning.

Tuesday: What a beautiful day! Sunny skies with a low of 37 (Once again keep an eye out for some frost in the valleys) and a high of 79.

Forecast Discussion:

So I think today is actually going to end up being mostly dry until later in the day when a few showers could spark off. Here's a radar to keep track of any showers or storms that do pop up.

Our best chance of rain will be on Saturday Night/ Sunday Morning:

NAM Saturday Evening:

NAM Sunday Morning:

And finally some good news. Both the GFS and NAM are backing off rainfall totals for the weekend, which is good news for the folks recovering from flooding in Eastern KY.

GFS:

NAM:

The NAM is showing around a half inch for most of Eastern KY, while the GFS is showing around an inch. That's not great, but much less than the 3-4"s some models were showing earlier in the week. After we deal with the rain for the weekend things are looking great for next week with Sunny skies and high temperatures near 80 for most of next week. Next weekend might be another story however. Also keep an eye on the tropics the next couple of weeks. Some the GFS and GEM individual ensemble members are trying to spin up some tropical activity in the next two weeks. So keep an eye on that and the rain for the weekend. We will talk again soon, until then take care!

Here Comes the Rain

2009-05-13T22:01:00.003-04:00

Good evening everyone. Well luckily most of the rain did stay off to our north today, so I felt good about the forecast of Isolated Showers. Let's go ahead and review the forecast for today before we go into the 5-day just to spice it up a bit.

Wednesday: Isolated Showers possible, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. Low of 49, High of 76.
Actual: Low 53, High of 75.

Overall not a bad forecast, now your Five Day Forecast for London, KY:

Thursday: Showers and Thunderstorms are likely in the afternoon. Otherwise Mostly Cloudy. Low of 62. High of 75.

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low of 64, High of 74.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Low of 65, High of 80.

Sunday: A good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures look to be falling through the day with a morning high of 71, and a low that evening 48.

Monday: Partly Sunny. Chilly Morning low of 38, High of 67.

Forecast Discussion:

So things still seem on track from this mornings post. The NAM is really cutting back our chances of rain tomorrow as the front moves through:

Tomorrow Morning:

Tomorrow Afternoon:

I think it might be weakening those showers out a bit to much as the front moves into the area, but we will see. Things also look wet through the weekend, but finally High Pressure builds in at the beginning of next week.

GFS Monday Afternoon:

Notice that mass of precip down in FL, that might be the first tropical system of the season trying to develop. I think that we should stay dry for the majority next week. High Pressure seems like it will build in for at least a couple of days, and it'll be a welcome sight to help flood recovery efforts.

Q&A:

Anonymous said...

Shane,

When will this pattern end? Do you see any indications in long range models that we might actually have more typical late spring weather? This rain and fronts stalling out is brutal. I'd love to see a strong High move our way and setup camp for a couple weeks. Thanks for the updates.

Well Anonymous, while I do see high pressure building in for the first part of next week, I'm not sold on the fact that'll we see see a big southeastern ridge build in the next few weeks. Most the things I look at for long range forecasting *Which is still my weakest area of forecasting, but I'm still trying to learn* point towards a continued active period in the weather. Next week like I said earlier shall be dry, but I don't think that ridge will hold. The CPC shows the next month to continue to be wetter than normal:

That's all for now, we'll talk again soon.

Rainy Days Ahead

2009-05-13T10:41:00.003-04:00

Good Wednesday morning everyone. I know you're thinking... why is he posting at this hour, shouldn't he be out reporting? Well I'm reporting night side today through Friday so updates will come late at night or early morning. Your 5-day forecast for London, KY:

Wednesday: Isolated Showers possible, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. Low of 49, High of 76.

Thursday: A much better chance of showers, and thunderstorms later in the day. Some of which could be on the strong side. Low of 58. High of 73.

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible early, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low of 56, High of 75

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Low of 64, High of 80.

Sunday: A good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures look to be falling through the day with a morning high of 71, and a low that evening 48.

Forecast Discussion:

Well once again a very rainy few days is in store for us. Here is a look at radar to track the rains through the day.

The good news for today is it looks most of the rain with the warm front that's moving through will stay north of us. The bad news is that as the cold front behind starts to move through, It's going to slam the breaks and move in like that uncle that always over stays his welcome. Here's a look at the models to see when we get this boundary out of here.

Thursday Afternoon:

Friday Afternoon:

The front stalls out until another Low Pressure system slides in behind it and finally pushes the entire mess on out of the area. This will start on Saturday.

Saturday Afternoon:

Sunday Morning:

So the GFS is backing off it's total rain for the period through Monday, but we still could see a couple of inches in eastern KY, which is not what we need.

Rain through Monday:

So I'll be keeping an eye on the water levels through the weekend. Until we talk again take care!

The Week Ahead and a Look at WV Flooding

2009-05-11T22:04:00.004-04:00

Good evening everyone, hope you had a wonderful day. The flooding rains have left, but will we stay dry to help with the clean up? Find out with your 5-day Forecast for London KY:

Tuesday: Mostly Sunny, Low of 44, High of 74.

Wednesday: Isolated Showers possible, otherwise Partly Sunny. Low of 49, High of 72.

Thursday: A much better chance of showers, and thunderstorms... some of which could be on the strong side. Low of 58. High of 73.

Friday: Scattered Showers and thunderstorms possible, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low of 56, High of 77

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a chance of thunderstorms later in the day. Low of 62, High of 78.

Forecast Discussion:

The week ahead is not good for those out in eastern KY trying to pick up the pieces after Friday's severe weather and flooding. The storm system that moved through was nothing short of amazing. The day I think we're really going to have to watch out for is going to be Thursday as a cold front moves through.

GFS Thursday:

Then We see more scattered showers off and on as we go into the weekend, culminating in another frontal system moving through Sunday:

GFS Sunday:

Total rainfall for the next week is a little scary looking considering the amount of rain we've seen recently.

Total Precipation through Next Monday:

So I will be keeping an eye on the flood threat through next week. To finish tonight pictures of flood damage from Wyoming Co. WV I took while doing a story there for the News last night.

Flooding Rains Continue

2009-05-09T10:07:00.005-04:00

Good morning and welcome back to the blog. What a wild day of weather across most of the eastern half the US yesterday, and Kentucky got hit as about hard as any state did. Here's a quick 5-day Forecast and then we'll talk about yesterday and what we can expect.

5-day Forecast for London, KY

Saturday: Showers are going to stick around for most of the day, but I think we'll get them out of here by the end of the day. High of 71.

Sunday: I think we're going to keep the majority of showers off to our south for Mothers day. We're going Mostly Cloudy to Partly Cloudy. with a High of 67. Low of 51.

Monday: Scattered Showers return to the forecast. High of 65. Low of 47.

Tuesday: MOSTLY SUNNY! I haven't had that in a forecast in a long time :P. High of 74, Low of 49.

Wednesday: Partly Sunny with clouds increasing throughout the day leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms by the night. High of 76, Low of 51.

Yesterdays weather:

All I have to say is I've never seen a storm system like that yesterday. It was truly a thing of beauty on radar, but left destruction in it's wake. Several reports of damage across the state, as well as a fatality in Madison county from a possible tornado. Here's a look at all the storm damage reports from yesterday.

National:

Local:

As you can several reports of wind damage and hail in the state. Not only did we have the severe weather but we also saw a tremendous amount of rain. Here is the Doppler Estimated Rainfall so far, and the latest flood watch and warnings.

Radar Estimated Rainfall:

Watches/Warnings
Okay I know this map might be a little hard to read. The counties in the duller green are under a flash flood watch, the counties in the brighter green are under a flash flood warning. And the counties with gray boxes over them are under a flood warning. As you can see in that radar image some areas Doppler radar estimated over 5 inches of rain with the storms so far yesterday/this morning. The ground was already saturated yesterday in many areas, so most of this water is going to pond or run off into the streams and rivers. If you live in a flood prone area in eastern KY keep an eye on the water level. I'm hoping we stay dry enough this week that we don't have any more flooding issues, but I'm seeing chances of rain on Monday, and Wednesday night/Thursday.

Monday Afternoon NAM Model:

Thursday Morning GFS Model:

We could see more severe weather with this cold front as it moves through Thursday, but I don't suspect it will be as strong as the round of severe weather we saw yesterday. Well that's all I have for now. Take Care and stay safe until we talk again.

Flood Threat Continues

2009-05-05T11:46:00.004-04:00

Happy Cinco de Mayo everyone! I wish the weather was a little dryer to celebrate, but alas we are stuck with more rain. Chances of rain are in your 5-day forecast.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise mostly cloudy. High of 75.

Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise mostly cloudy. High of 68, Low of 62.

Thursday: More of the same, scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise mostly cloudy. High of 77, Low of 55.

Friday: Once again more scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise mostly cloudy. High of 72, Low of 58.

Saturday: More scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise mostly cloudy. High of 63, Low of 56.

Forecast Discussion:

So the wet pattern continues. So what exactly is causing this extended period of unsettled weather? I'll try to answer that for ya. Basically the jet stream is a parked right on top of us.

And as it kind of waves back and forth on top of us for the next week, we'll see small low pressures systems over top of us, each one bring us a chance of showers and thunderstorms. And the possibility is there to see more heavy rain. Here's the 7-day rain out look from HPC:

4 inches of rain over the next week is the last thing southern KY needs right now. There were already several reports of flooding over the weekend, and if we keep adding on more and more rain I suspect it will only get worse. We also have a slight chance at severe weather for Wednesday and Thursday.

Wed:

Thurs:

I'll keep an eye on it and will have more info as it becomes available. I'm working morning shift again tomorrow so I'm not sure when I'll update again just yet. We'll talk again soon.

Flooding LIkely Tonight

2009-05-04T00:11:00.004-04:00

Hey Folks, no 5-day tonight, that'll come tomorrow... we've got flooding issues at hand... here's the latest from the NWS.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1148 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
EASTERN WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
BELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
WESTERN HARLAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN LESLIE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 545 AM EDT

* AT 1144 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE WARNED AREA PRODUCING
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AREAS IN
THE VICINITY OF BARBOURVILLE...HARLAN...HYDEN...LOYALL...
MANCHESTER...PINEVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...SOUTH WALLINS AND WALLINS
CREEK.

FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE CAUSED AS VERY HEAVY RAIN FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINS. BE ESPECIALLY
CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF
FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT
TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING. ALSO...WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN

So just how much rain have we seen? Here's a look at Doppler Estimates:

Those Darker reds indicate over 5 inches of rain in parts of McCreary County. Streams and rivers are likely to rise over night and through the day tomorrow so if you live in a flood prone area keep a sharp eye on the water level. That's all I've got for tonight, we'll talk more tomorrow.

Dust Off The Rain Gear

2009-04-28T10:20:00.002-04:00

Thanks for stopping by the old blog. After a couple of days at home I'm feeling recharged, and ready to make a post before I hit the road back to West Virgina.

Your 5-day Forecast For London, KY:

Tuesday: Our sunshine gives way to clouds, rain, and maybe even a thunderstorm by early afternoon. High of 77, Low of 59.

Wednesday: Showers and Thunderstorms Continue, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. High of 74, Low of 58.

Thursday: Showers and Thunderstorms again, and again Mostly Cloudy when it's not raining. High of 75, Low of 61.

Friday: You guessed it, more showers and thunderstorms. High of 72, Low of 57.

Saturday: Rain Rain go away, come again another day... High of 68, Low of 46.

I'll post up a forecast discussion once I get back to WV to explain what's going on. In the mean time you can track where the rain is on the radar at the bottom of the page.

Record Heat!

2009-04-25T11:23:00.002-04:00

Welcome to your weekend everyone. We broke a record high temperature at London/ Corbin airport yesterday!

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
519 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LONDON...

AT 505 PM EDT...THE TEMPERATURE AT THE LONDON CORBIN AIRPORT REACHED
89 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1960.

Your 5-day Forecast for London KY:

Saturday: Mostly Sunny with a chance of isolated showers. High of 90, Low of 58.

Sunday: Mostly Sunny with a high of 88, Low of 63.

Monday: Mostly Sunny with a high of 84, Low of 60.

Tuesday: Partly Sunny with clouds increasing throughout the day. High of 81, Low of 59.

Wednesday: Showers and Thunderstorms Possible, High of 71, Low of 53.

Forecast Discussion:

Looking past the amazing weekend, I'm beginning to become concerned about how much rain we could see at the 2nd half of next week.

GFS: Sixty Hour Precipitation Ending Friday Evening

That's a lot of rain coming in a 3 day period. I think the ground should be able to soak it up with as dry as we're going to be today-Tuesday, but it's something to keep an eye on. Also something tog keep an eye is the possibility of some stronger storms on Wednesday. But don't worry about that now, stop reading and go outside! We'll talk again sporadically the next couple of days as I'm taking a 3-day weekend back home.

A Taste of Summer

2009-04-23T09:53:00.002-04:00

I don't mean burgers and dogs, I mean sunny skies and temperatures in the 80's... that's what mother nature is cooking up for your 5-day forecast for London, KY:

Friday: Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of an isolated shower in the afternoon. High of 83, Low of 52.

Saturday: Mostly Sunny with a chance of isolated showers. High of 84, Low of 58.

Sunday: Mostly Sunny with a high of 86, Low of 59.

Monday: Mostly Sunny with a high of 84, Low of 60.

Tuesday: Partly Sunny with clouds increasing throughout the day. High of 85, Low of 62.

Things are looking amazing for the next couple of days so enjoy it. Well talk again soon.

Sunny Skies on the Horizon!

2009-04-22T00:52:00.002-04:00

Welcome to Wednesday! Hope the soggy weather hasn't gotten you down, but if it has I have good news. Skies will clear by the end of the day, and by this weekend we will see Sunny Skies and Temperatures in the 80's!

Your 5-day Forecast for London, KY

Wednesday: We wrap up the showers and should get to partly cloudy conditions by the end of the day. High of 62, Low of 37.

Thursday: Mostly Sunny and warmer. High of 80. Low of 41.

Friday: Mostly Sunny. High of 83! Low of 52.

Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High of 86, Low of 59.

Sunday: Mostly Sunny. High of 84, Low of 61.

Forecast Review:

Tuesday: Scattered Showers off and on throughout the day. Otherwise we'll be partly to mostly cloudy. High of 56, Low of 44.

Actual: 56, 45. Woo Hoo, nailed this one almost on the dot for both!

Forecast Discussion: Not much to say here besides the fact we'll have one last day of damp weather, and then things are shaping up to be beautiful! A taste of summer is coming for this weekend which will feature temperatures in the mid 80's, and sunny skies. I think that we will not see another chance of showers until the middle of next week, but we'll deal with that in a few days. So just hold on for one more day!

Okay now that obligatory multiple 80's references are out of the way, I'm going to go get ready for the morning show.

Make sure to follow me on Twitter @WxManShane

And the new Youtube Channel, featuring some of my work from WOAY @ WxManShane

Deja Vu Tuesday

2009-04-21T00:13:00.002-04:00

Good Morning, and thanks for stopping by Yourlondonkyweather.blogspot.com. Another day very similiar to yesterday, and very similar to the beginning of last week is on tap for you Tuesday.

Your 5-day Forecast for London, KY:

Tuesday: Scattered Showers off and on throughout the day. Otherwise we'll be partly to mostly cloudy. High of 56, Low of 44.

Wednesday: We wrap up the showers and should get to partly sunny conditions by the end of the day. High of of 59, Low of 38.

Thursday: Mostly Sunny and warmer. High of 72. Low of 38.

Friday: Mostly Sunny with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. High of 81! Low of 47.

Saturday: Mostly Sunny with a chance of Scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High of 82, Low of 59.

Forecast Discussion:

Well we've got two more days of damp weather instore. We're not going to be seeing showers all days, just off and on with breaks in the clouds in between. Here's a look at the simulated Radar from the NAM to Illustrate my point.

Tuesday AM:

Tuesday PM:

Wed PM:

After we get past these few damp days, things are looking much nicer this weekend with temperatures soaring into the 80's. I think we stay mostly sunny for most of the weekend, but we could get some pop up convective thunderstorms in the afternoon on Friday and Saturday.

GFS: Saturday Evening

It's something I'll be keeping any eye in the next few days. After that we have the possibility of some severe weather once a cold front moves through at the middle of next week.

GFS Sunday Evening:

GFS Tuesday Evening:

So what looks to be shaping up is a blast of cooler air wants to work in and set up a front boundary of to our west on Sunday evening. What happens then is it checks up to the north as Low Pressure starts to develop over Texas and Oklahoma and then starts working east. If it is in Texas Tuesday Morning I would suspect we'd see it sometime Thursday. So theres a look at the whats on tap for the next week and a half. We'll talk again tomorrow. Until then take care!

BTW you can follow me on Twitter now at WxManShane

I also now have a new Youtube page I'm working on. I'll have the details for it in the coming days.

Rainy Monday Ahead

2009-04-20T01:24:00.003-04:00

Your 5-day Forecast for London KY:

Monday: Scattered Showers continue as an upper level trough digs into the eastern half of the US. High of 57, Low 44.

Tuesday: Scattered Showers, drizzle, and mist for another day, with Mostly Cloudy skies. High of 55, Low of 42.

Wednesday: We wrap up the showers and should get to partly cloudy conditions by the end of the day. High of of 54, Low of 36.

Thursday: Mostly Sunny and warmer in the afternoon. High of 70. Low of 38.

Friday: Mostly Sunny, should be an amazing day to be outside. High of 78! Low of 49.

Forecast Discussion:

So a serious case of Deja vu is instore for us. A wet start to the week, an amazing end to the week. A little Charlie Brown to talk about our rainy few days ahead.

But much like last week, High Pressure will take hold of our weather at the end of the week... and we might see an 80 degree day before the end of our next week.

I'm on morning shift this week, so I need to cut this a little short. Pack an umbrella today, and we'll talk again soon.

By the way you can now follow me @ Twitter: WxManShane

Springy Saturday

2009-04-18T12:28:00.003-04:00

Hello one and all, and welcome back to Your London KY Weather. Here is your 5-day forecast.

Sunday: Showers and Thunderstorms are likely, some could be on the strong side. High of 60, Low of 52.

Monday: Showers continue as an upper level trough digs into the eastern half of the US. High of 56, Low 44.

Tuesday: Scattered Showers, Mostly Cloudy skies, and cooler. High of 45, Low of 38.

Wednesday: Scattered Showers and Mostly cloudy skies continue for one last day. High of of 52, Low of 35.

Thursday: Mostly Sunny and warmer in the afternoon. High of 64. Low of 34.

Forecast Discussion:

So things are looking a lot like the beginning of last week for this week. Southern Low Pressure moves through, brings us showers and thunderstorms, and as trough digs in behind it we see an elongated period of scattered showers. And just like last week, things are looking better for the end of this week.

Severe Weather Possible Today

2009-03-28T11:16:00.002-04:00

Hey folks, We do have a chance at severe weather later in the day so I thought I would post my opinion on the situation.

So when looking at severe weather potential, there's a little cookbook of ingredients I like to look at. Without getting into too much meteorological rhetoric, you need 4 ingredients:

1. Instability
2. Wind Shear
3. Lift
4. Moisture

Okay lets go through today's set up and see what we have.

Instability is the biggest thing working against severe weather today. Usually to generate instability you need nice Sunny Skies and tons of energy being cranked in from the sun. Lets look at the latest visible satellite.

As you can see the cloud deck is nice and thick this morning except over a few parts of south central KY, and western TN. This should limit instability, and the latest RUC model agrees with it's measurement of CAPE.

Wind shear is something we have a decent amount of today.

Lift today is going to be caused by the cold frontal passage, so there is no question we will have lift caused by the front. Moisture is looking decent today with dewpoints in the 50's and forecasted to get near 60.

So my thoughts are that south eastern KY's biggest threat will come in the form of a squall line passing through the state tonight. High winds will be our biggest concern tonight. I will be at work when this thing passes so here's a map with the latest watches and warnings... I think it should auto update.

So keep an eye on the sky and an ear to a NOAA weather radio or local media outlet to get the latest info.

Active Couple of Days

2009-03-24T15:22:00.007-04:00

Time to get back in the habit of daily blogging.

Your 5-day Forecast for London KY:

Wednesday: Showers and Thunderstorms are likely, espeicaly early morning. Winds will be gusty. Low of 52, High of 61.

Thursday: Showers once again likely, maybe a rumble of thunder or two. Low of 53, High of 58.

Friday: I think we catch a break in the action for a while with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and scattered showers possible later in the day. Low of 46, High of 62.

Saturday: Showers and Thunderstorms likely, some could be strong to severe. Winds will be very gusty as well. Low of 52, High of 65.

Sunday: Showers, Gusty Winds, and Mostly Cloudy skies are in the forecast with temperatures falling throughout the day. An after midnight of near 60, with temperatures falling in the mid to low 40's by the afternoon. For the sake of the forecast we'll go High of 62, Low of 43.

Monday Morning Update

2009-03-16T00:06:00.003-04:00

Your 5-day Forecast for London KY,

Monday: Partly Cloudy with a few isolated showers not out of the question. Low of 49, High of 57.

Tuesday: St. Patty's day is looking awesome! Mostly Sunny, Low of 40, High of 64

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny skies stick around with clouds increasing towards the end of the day. Low of 47, High of 70.

Thursday: A cold front moves through the state bringing us showers and thunderstorms. Windy with cooler temperatures falling through the day. After Midnight High of 52 Low of 43.

Friday: Sunny but pretty cool to start the day. Low of 28, High of 46.

Forecast Review:

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers tapering off by the end of the day. Low of 43, High of 56. Actual: 44/58

So not a bad forecast at all! Forecast is looking on track right now for the next couple of days, enjoy St. Patties day! Wednesday will be ever better. I'm thinking March might go out like a lion.

Sunday Morning Update

2009-03-14T23:59:00.003-04:00

Good Sunday Morning one and all! I hope you are having a great Sunday. I apologize for the lack of updates recently. I've been busy at work and in my social life right now and have had to put weather back home on the back burner for a few days now. But excuses aside, it's time for an updated 5 day forecast and a couple of days we're I'll have some free time to blog.

Your 5-day Forecast for London KY,

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers tapering off by the end of the day. Low of 43, High of 56.

Monday: Partly Cloudy with a few isolated showers not out of the question. Low of 48, High of 58.

Tuesday: St. Patty's day is looking awesome! Mostly Sunny, Low of 40, High of 63

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny skies stick around with clouds increasing towards the end of the day. Low of 47, High of 67.

Thursday: A cold front moves through the state bringing us showers and thunderstorms. Windy with cooler temperatures falling through the day. After Midnight High of 54, Low of 42.

Well talk again tomorrow night! Until then try to stay dry and have a good one!

Tuesday Night Update

2009-03-10T22:17:00.003-04:00

A Quick 5-day Forecast for London, KY:

Wednesday: Thunderstorms possible early morning, winds will be gusty and temps will be falling throughout the day. Clouds will clear up after our storms move through. After midnight High of 68. Low of 39.

Thursday: Thursday should be Mostly Sunny, with clouds increasing late and just a slight chance of a rain or snow as a warm front moves northward. High of 40, Low of 31.

Friday: Canadian High pressure moves in for Friday, leaving our skies partly cloudy as the frontal boundary remains just to our south. A few scattered showers can't be ruled out. A northern wind rushing in cooler air for the morning, but some warmer air for our afternoon. Low of 27, High of 47.

Saturday: Our frontal boundary checks back to the north and brings us a better chance of showers. Low of 35, High of 46.

Sunday: An even better chance of showers as low pressure moves through the area. High of 60, Low of 38.

I'll have more details tomorrow night. Sorry for the lack of posts the last few days, between work, my parents visiting, and just some unwinding time I needed yesterday and today, I haven't been too focused on the weather.

Severe Weather Possible Today

2009-03-08T12:54:00.003-04:00

Hey folks, quick update before I go into work today. We are under a risk for severe weather today.

I would not be surprised if we are put under a tornado watch later in the afternoon. I expect the squall line to move through London sometime between 9 PM and Midnight. Main threats are damaging winds, isolated large hail, and isolated tornadoes. I will have a full update including a new 5-day forecast later tonight. Until then stay safe and keep an eye on the weather, especially this evening.

Wow What a Warm Up!

2009-03-05T22:28:00.002-05:00

Hope you enjoyed the alliteration in the title as much as I'm enjoying the warmer weather! I hope you are also enjoying the warmer weather, and you 5-day forecast is also looking quite warm.

Your 5-day Forecast for London, KY:

Friday: Partly Sunny with an isolated chance of showers. Low of 49, High of 70!

Saturday: Mostly Sunny and warm! Low of 48, High of 74!

Sunday: Clouds increasing through the day with a chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the day. Low of 55, High of 67.

Monday: Showers continue mainly in the morning, otherwise Partly Cloudy. Low of 44, High of 57.

Tuesday: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of showers later in the day. Low of 52, High of 67.

So after a much need couple of days backing off the weather, just keeping a passing eye on it, I'm feeling much refreshed. I'm still concerned about a cool down again towards the middle of next week, but we'll burn that bridge when we get there! In the mean time enjoy the warm temperatures and have those umbrellas handy on Sunday. We'll talk again soon.

March Comes in Like a piece of Frozen Lamb

2009-03-02T09:06:00.009-05:00

Your 5-day Forecast for London, KY:

Tuesday: Mostly Sunny and cold. Low of 11, High of 27.

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. Low of 23, High of 47.

Thursday: Partly Cloudy with a slight chance of a scattered shower. Low of 37, High of 60.

Friday: Partly Cloudy with another slight chance of showers. Low of of 49, High of 56.

Saturday: A Chance of Showers or Thunderstorms, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. Low of 52, High
of 64.

Forecast Review since last 5-day:

Saturday: Chance of Rain Changing to Snow late. High of of 42, Low of 30 Actual: 41/31

Sunday: Chance of Snow, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. High 34, Low of 22. Actual: 38/24

Monday: Chane of Scattered Snow Showers, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. High of 26, Low of 17. Actual: **/16 *Will update later*

Well I'm pretty happy with my temperature forecasts, hey if I'm going to miss the snow totals at least I got temps pretty close!

Forecast Discussion:

Okay things are looking cold in the short term as serious Arctic high pressure moves in to clear us out. It would not surprise me if some of the sheltered valleys hit single digits for lows tomorrow morning.

Once that high moves east of us and our winds shift to the south we should start the warm air conveyor belt from the Gulf of Mexico. Temps might make a run at 70 by the weekend as we get a pair of storm systems rolling in from the planes. First things first, lets look at our Friday set up.

Storm 1:

GFS:

DGEX:

Canadian:

Euro:

Pretty decent agreement for our Friday system as a week cold front moves through. Temperatures won't drop much with it and we should just see an increase in clouds and some showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder. Now for the weekend, where things aren't looking as clear.

GFS:

DGEX:

Canadian:

Euro:

Okay let's break this down. GFS and DGEX *Which takes the NAM's data to start up and the carries out where the NAM cuts off with GFS data.* is showing a big storm getting wound up in the planes and the precipiation it is showing for us is due to a lifting warm front hooked into that storm.

The Canadian says, not so fast... I'm going to develop a storm on the east side of the Appalachians and try to wrap in some colder air for Sunday.

Then the Euro says, hang on, hang on! I'm going to bomb out our Friday system and just open the door for some cold air to come in for the weekend.

So which one's right... I'm honestly hoping the GFS. I'm tired of the cold and snow. We ended up picking up an inch last night here in WV when no model was showing it. I'm just ready to get some warmer and Sunny weather in for a couple of days to give this weather dude a break. I'm filling in again tonight at the station, so only a one day weekend tomorrow which I am looking forward to! I still think we have the chance at one big winter storm before we wrap up the season. The GFS is trying to spit out a monster storm for the 13th... but that's 11 days from now and I'll deal with it here in about 6. Until we talk again, have a great day and take care!

Snow No Go?

2009-03-01T00:20:00.002-05:00

Just a quick update before I head out for the evening. It looks like a pretty serious dry slot has worked in and it's going to cut our snow totals down. Not to mention we had a nice period of sleet as well to our north. So If we can get 1-3 inches of snow at this point I'll be happy... but I'm really not sure we'll see that much. Just keep an eye on Radar, and specifically the track of the upper level low.

I'll have an updated 5-day sometime tomorrow *Maybe after Midnight*. Until then take care! And be careful because there could be a few slick spots out there tonight.

Snow Update And Possible Flooding

2009-02-28T11:54:00.008-05:00

FLOODING CONCERN UPDATE, 1:30:

Hey folks just a quick update before I head into work. I'm hearing reports of over a half inch of rain in some parts of the area *Thanks Andy and Michael S*. Doppler Radar has shown estimates as much as 2 inches of rain in some parts of the area so far.

If we continue to see heavy rain before the change over to snow some isolated flooding, especially in flood prone areas is possible. Luckily for us we have been relatively dry lately so the ground should be able to soak most of this in. However ponding of water on the roads is possible, so be careful out there while driving. And keep an eye on those creeks. Back to your regularly scheduled post.

*ORIGINAL POST*

Good Saturday everyone, hope you are enjoying your weekend. No new 5-day right now, we've got more important matters to deal with. Things look on track for a pretty good snowstorm for most of southeastern KY. National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a winter weather advisory for all of southeastern KY until Sunday Morning *Which I suspect might be extended past that*. NWS is expecting a general one to three inches, and perhaps some freezing rain which could cause slick travel conditions.

So let's set the playing field for those of you just joining us to find out what's going on.

We have an area of low pressure off to our south east which is responsible for our rain this morning. As it continues to work off to the east it's going to suck in more cold air and turn our precip over to snow. Behind it to our west we have an upper level disturbance moving to the south and east. This is what should bring us our snow. Depending on it's track will determine how much snow we will see, as well as if any of our current precip is turned over to snow. Also a lot of that precip in central KY isn't reaching the ground yet because of the dry air in place at the surface (IE Verga).

Here's a look at Temps and the freezing line as of noon.

That line should continue to push farther tho the south as the day progresses. So how much snow do I think we're going to see?

Map is pretty self explanatory. I hope this right because I'm not going to have a chance to work on it during the day.

Here's all you need to keep ahead of the game today.

Local Radar:

Radar to watch the Upper Level Low:

KY Mesonet Temperatures:

Both Radars are from the fine folks at Intellicast. I'll have enough update after midnight tonight. Stay safe out there and hopefully you get as much snow as you want to see!

Weekend Snow?

2009-02-27T11:51:00.003-05:00

Your 5-day Forecast for London KY:

Saturday: Chance of Rain Changing to Snow late. High of of 42, Low of 30

Sunday: Chance of Snow, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. High 34, Low of 22.

Monday: Chane of Scattered Snow Showers, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. High of 26, Low of 17.

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy. High of 35, Low of 18.

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High of 38, Low of 20

Forecast Discussion:

Okay here's the break down. The models are all over the place. Some are taking the storm down to the gulf coast and then up the Atlantic coast. Others are taking a more inland route. The exact track of the low pressure is going to determine exactly what we see, and more importantly how much snow we see. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the track of the storm, so with that said I'm going show a map of where I think the low is going to go, followed by how much snow that would mean for KY.

Track:

Assuming This track is correct, this is what I would expect for totals.

As you can see there will be a very sharp cut off in who gets snow and who doesn't get much at all. I will have a more detailed totals map tomorrow, but at this point it's an effort in futility to go more specific just because the models will continue to bounce around a bit.

Wednesday Quickie

2009-02-25T17:32:00.003-05:00

Hey Folks,

I don't have a lot of time tonight so, quick look at your 5 day with some discussion mixed in.

5-day Forecast:

Thursday:

Showers and Thunderstorms likely, some could be strong to severe. Low of 45, Hi of 63.

Friday:

Showers and Thunderstorms continue early, otherwise mostly cloudy. High early in the day of 59, Low of 43.

Here's where the forecast gets really tricky:

Saturday: Chance of Wintry mix, High of of 42, Low of 28.

Sunday: Chance of Snow, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. High 34, Low of 23.

Monday: Chane of Snow, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. High of 26, Low of 19.

Okay since I'm low on time don't have time to post the models... but that's okay because every one is saying something different besides the European and the Canadian. They are saying big snow storm. Do I buy that just yet? No Way!

Is the possibility of a big snow storm on the table, oh you better believe it.. but so is the possibility of an ice storm, all rain, flurries, clouds, and about everything in between. This is the lowest confidence forecast I've ever put together. I would fill just as confident as rolling a dice, throwing darts, flipping a coin or even ASKING A MAGIC 8 BALL about this forecast. So just hang with us folks... I hope to have more answers for you tomorrow night or Friday morning.

So I asked the 8-ball... "Will we see a big snowstorm this weekend?"
Here's what it said:

....

Monday Update

2009-02-23T17:11:00.005-05:00

Your 5-day Forecast:

Tuesday: Sunny, Low of 17, High of 44.

Wednesday: A Slight Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms, otherwise Partly Cloudy. Low of 29, High of 54.

Thursday: Once again a chance of Showers and Thunderstorms, otherwise Partly Cloudy. Low of 42, High of 63.

Friday: Showers and Thunderstorms Likely, high winds are possible. Low of 42, High of 63.

Saturday: Looks likes a chance of Rain changing to snow is on tap. Low of 28, High of 40.

Forecast Discussion: Well the first part of the week is looking calm. However we could be in for a wild ride come Friday into Saturday. The Euro is trying to throw together a big time winter storm in time for the beginning of next week.

The GFS Is showing something similar.

So you're saying hold up, that thing is off to our Southeast. Your right it is. But knowing model trends it could head back to the northwest. Also even if we don't get the storm that would be some serious cold air in the area. Also it might be a non event as several other possible systesm this winter. It's something we'll keep an eye on the next couple of days.

Sunday Morning Snow Recap

2009-02-22T10:44:00.005-05:00

Your 5-Day Forecast for London, KY:

Monday: Partly Sunny. Low of 14, High of 28.

Tuesday: Sunny, Low of 16, High of 40.

Wednesday: A Slight Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms, otherwise Partly Cloudy. Low of 27, High of 52.

Thursday: Once again a chance of Showers and Thunderstorms, otherwise Partly Cloudy. Low of 40, High of 60.

Friday: Showers and Thunderstorms Likely, high winds are possible. Low of 32, High of 63.

Forecast Discussion:

So we ended up getting about an inch or two across the region so I feel good about my forecast. It was quite incredible to see temperatures surge up ahead of the front and still put down a decent little snow.

Here's whats on tap for the rest of the week, well the first half of the week is looking pretty nice, and warmer once we get past a cold Monday. High pressure will be in command until Wednesday, when a warm front starts to move north across the state, and could bring us a chance of some scattered showers or storms on Wednesday and a better chance on Thursday.

The best chance for showers and storms is on Friday when the cold front and low pressure actually passes through the state.

GFS Friday:

As you can see this run of the GFS is trying to get a bit of a squall line forming on the front. This would make sense as temperatures ahead of the front would be in the 60s and behind it in the 30s. This could potentially be a strong wind situation so I'll be keeping an eye on it throughout the week. After that we cool back down and then look to warm back up in the middle of the week after next.

It looks like to me that March is going to be a pretty active month with at least the potential of having one or two more accumulating snowfalls. We still might be able to crank out a big one as the NAO is trending back to Negative, and the PNA to positive. We'll just have to wait and see.

Have a great day and we'll have an update for you tomorrow.

Saturday 5-Day

2009-02-21T19:24:00.003-05:00

Your 5-Day Forecast for London, KY:

Sunday: Snow showers early, otherwise Partly Sunny. Low 0f 17, High of 28.

Monday: Partly Sunny. Low of 16, High of 32.

Tuesday: Sunny, Low of 18, High of 40.

Wednesday: A Slight Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms, otherwise Partly Cloudy. Low of 28, High of 52.

Thursday: Once again a slight chance of Showers and Thunderstorms, otherwise Partly Cloudy. Low of 40, High of 60.

I still think an inch or two of snow is possible in London tonight. We'll just have to wait and see. Use the Gadgets on the page to track the current weather conditions.

Saturday AM Update

2009-02-21T11:23:00.005-05:00

Hey folks,

Just a quick update this morning. Looks like the rain is moving in faster than I expected. It also appears that the cold air is not mixing in very fast, so this could lead to an extended period of rain. Keep an eye on the temperatures in the mesonet gadget and radar at the bottom of the page. I still think a general 1-3 inches on tap for most of the area. I'll have a quick update to your 5 day *No Graphics* Tonight.

Update: Winter Weather Advisory posted for most of Eastern KY, 1-2 inches of snow generally expected with some locally higher amounts, mainly in the higher elevations of eastern KY. This runs until Midnight Tomorrow.

Welcome to the Weekend

2009-02-20T19:06:00.004-05:00

Your 5-day Forecast for London, KY:

Saturday: Rain changing to Snow is possible from a clipper system moving in. Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy before the precip starts. Low of 26, High of 53.

Sunday: Snow showers early, otherwise Partly Sunny. Low 0f 19, High of 28.

Monday: Partly Sunny. Low of 14, High of 31.

Tuesday: Sunny, Low of 16, High of 40.

Wednesday: A Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. Low of 33, High of 46.

Forecast Discussion:

Things look pretty simple compared to how they were looking. We could see an inch or two in the London area by Sunday morning. Maybe an isolated 3 Inch snowfall is possible but I'm leaning against it. After that things are looking cooler, but Sunny for the first part of the week. Business picks up towards the end of the week though as we'll have a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. I'll have an updated 5-day tomorrow.

Thursday Quick Post

2009-02-19T17:47:00.002-05:00

A quick 5-day Forecast:

Friday: Mostly Sunny and Cold. Low of 16, High of 34.

Saturday: Rain changing to Snow is possible from a clipper system moving in. Low of 26, High of 45.

Sunday: Snow showers early, otherwise Partly Sunny. Low 0f 19, High of 28.

Monday: Partly Cloudy with a slight chance of Snow. Low of 13, High of 33.

Tuesday: Sunny, Low of 23, High of 42.

The models are really backing off our snow chances. A general 1-2"s across the state is what they're showing now. Things are likely to shift again before this storm hits, however it looks like it's going to be a case of Warm Air Advection winning again. I'm filling in tomorrow morning so that's all I can do because I need to try to get to sleep in about a half hour. I'll have a big update tomorrow afternoon.

Wed PM Update

2009-02-18T18:00:00.007-05:00

Your 5-day Forecast for London KY

Thursday: Rain changing to some light snow. Just after midnight High of 56, Low of 22. I want to note that low is not a morning low, it will likely happen just before midnight Friday.

Friday: Mostly Sunny and Cold. Low of 15, High of 33.

Saturday:A little rain changing to Snow is possible from a clipper system moving in. Low of 26, High of 39.

Sunday: Snow showers early, otherwise Partly Sunny. Low 0f 17, High of 28.

Monday: Partly Cloudy with a slight chance of Snow. Low of 10, High of 33.

Forecast Review:Wednesday: Showers, and maybe even a Thunderstorm is likely. Winds will be gusty. Low of 44, High of 58. To be updated Later with actual data.

Forecast Discussion: Okay boys and girls, things are looking pretty interesting for this weekend. It has my attention in a serious manner. Let's get to the good stuff after we do a little house cleaning. I want to apologize for not mentioning the chance of severe weather today. I honestly though the brunt of it was going to stay south of the region, but sure enough we got just enough instability to trigger off some impressive looking storms on Radar. I haven't heard much in the way of damage reports, but I do feel bad not giving you a heads up even on the slight possibility. I'll do better next time.

Okay, slight chance of snow tomorrow as we get some wrap around from the low pressure moving out, we might get a dusting, but the ground is so warm it's probably not going to happen. So lets move on to the fun and games.

A fairly decent looking clipper system is set to move in the Bluegrass State Saturday morning, and with it bringing us a chance at a good late season snow. Let's see what the models are showing:

GFS:

Sat. Morning:

Sat. Afternoon:

Sat Night:

It's showing a little bit of rain, changing over to all snow in a hurry, and really dropping some heavy precip for a clipper. The reason is that it's feeding off a developing low pressure in the gulf coast. If it can suck the moisture off that system, and mix it with it's cold air and upper level energy *Oh which there is plenty*, it would be game on for a decent snow. The Canadian and NAM/DGEX are both on board.

Canadian: Sat Morning:

Sat Afternoon:

Sat Night:

NAM/DGEX

Sat Morning:

Sat Afternoon:

Sat Night:

Sun Early Morning:

Okay so the big thing to notice with these two models is that they're really trying to kick that moisture from the south into our clipper. If this happens it is game on for a big snow somewhere in the TN and Ohio River Valleys. Here's what the latest models are showing for totals:

NAM:

GFS:

As you can see the NAM is really blowing up some heavy snows in TN and Southern KY. Also realize that only goes out 84 hours, so you continue to move that heavy snow band east and London could get caught in it. So the moment you've waited for, my first call map for the snow!

Okay let me explain this cause it's a bit different than normal. If you're north of the white line you'll probably see 1-3"s. If your between the White and and Blue line a General 2-4" is on tap right now. If you're south of the Blue line you should see more than 3"s. Now here's what the colors are for... that's where I think the heavy snow band is going to set up. The area that gets caught in the heavy snow band IF IT SETS UP, will see more than 5"s of snow. This is going to be a serious case of 40 miles will make all the difference with this storm. I will continue to update this map over the coming days on where I think the snow band will set up, and adjust the snow totals accordingly. Once again this is just a first call and will be adjust several times over the coming days.

So there ya have it! I'm going to be keeping my eye on this and I'll have another update tomorrow. It will not be very long because I have to fill in Friday morning, however I should have a massive update around 2 PM on Friday. Take care and enjoy the Sunny skies tomorrow, it might be a few days before we see it again without some snow :P

Mobile Update

2009-02-18T14:21:00.003-05:00

Severe weather is on going in SE KY right now. Check out warnings in the left and radar at the bottom. Update coming later.

Update: Just got back from work, looks like the worst of the storms are over. Highs are going to bust by 7 degrees at least cause of the warm sector the storm pulling into southern KY. I'll have a full update after I get a chance to look at the latest data and eat some dinner.

Wed AM Quick Update

2009-02-18T08:00:00.002-05:00

Good morning folks, just a quick update before I head into work.

1. Showers continue to work their way across the region. We're already in the low 40's this morning. Our Low and cold front is still up to the northwest and should work through tomorrow morning. Highs today should hit the mid to upper 50's.

2. I still think a little wrap around snow is possible tomorrow morning. Minor accumulations possible as mentioned in Tuesday's map, but probably won't get up to 2"s.

3. Our system for Saturday is still on track to bring mainly snow, with just a touch of rain possibly mixed in Saturday morning.

4. The weather models are at war this morning about whether or not we'll see this big storm that Euro and Canadian are showing. GFS is saying no. I'll have more details tonight.

We'll have an updated graphical 5-day and maybe a video blog if I have time tonight, if not you'll at least get an update discussion. Take care and you can track the rain and temperature with new gadgets on the left side and bottom of the price.

Tuesday Night Update

2009-02-17T21:10:00.013-05:00

Quick Update as the Cats are Tipping off:

A snowfall totals map through Friday morning.

As you can see east of I-64 could see a dusting, maybe a little more. I'm not expecting much out this first clipper. Our 2nd clipper is going to be interesting, and what comes behind it even more interesting.

Here's the NAM's thought on the first clipper:

As you can see we don't drop below freezing till early Thursday morning, so this would be mainly rain tomorrow, followed by some light snow. If we do get any accumulation out of this it will be light, and it will mainly be on the grassy areas and rooftops. Might have to watch out for some black ice on bridges and overpasses as you got to work or school Thursday morning.

Next our Weekend clipper, let's see what the GFS is showing for it:

Sat Early Morning:
Sat Late Morning:

Sat Afternoon:
So the GFS is showing we might start it out as a little mix or rain before quickly changing over to all snow, and likely putting down some accumulating snow. It's also supported by the 0z NAM which just finished running. I'll have a call map tomorrow on how much. Now here's where things get interesting, the European and Canadian are trying to develop a southern storm in the wake of this clipper.

Canadian:

Sunday Morning:

Sunday PM

I think it may be moving things in just a bit too fast, which is why I went party sunny on my 5-day from earlier in the day. The timing will be critical on this, and we'll have to see how the 0z GFS trends to see if this idea has any credit. It's on the radar but it's too far out to get excited just yet... but this might be a system that sneaks up on us. Thanks for stop by the blog today, I hope you like the new layout and color scheme. I'm going to continue fine tuning things over the next couple of days, as well as fine tuning this forecast. So come back and see us soon, and be sure to tell your friends about us. Have a great day!

Oh and BTW, check out this new service from the NWS. It's called iNWS and it will send you mobile e-mail and/or text message alerts about severe weather.

Radar to Track tomorrows rain:

Something I've been working on

2009-02-17T15:46:00.006-05:00

Your 5-Day Forecast for London KY:

Wednesday: Showers, and maybe even a Thunderstorm is likely. Winds will be gusty. Low of 44, High of 58.

Thursday: Rain changing to snow. Just after midnight High of 51, Low of 22.

Friday: Mostly Sunny and Cold. Low of 17, High of 34.

Saturday: Rain changing to Snow is possible from a clipper system moving in. Low of 26, High of 37.

Sunday: A few flurries early, otherwise Sunny. Low 0f 17, High of 26.

And now in graphical form:

Long Range Discussion:

Not much to change from yesterday besides the fact that Warm Air Advection looks to work in ahead of our Saturday clipper, which will change it to a little rain to begin with. Sorry for all you snow lovers :(.

Website Talk: So I hope you like the graphical 5-day, it's something I built today messing around in Artweaver. Let me know what you like about it, dislike, etc. Over the next couple of weeks based on your feedback going to change the blog a bit. What I want to do is be able to make some simple maps in Google Earth, with nice labels and legends made in Artweaver to be able to do a quick forecast discussion. And I'll save the more technical stuff for video blogs using model data. I'm also looking at changing the format of the blog to always have updated radar, satellite, and 5-day forecast at the bottom of the page. Also looking into changing the color scheme and layout of the blog to match the graphics I'm making. It's going to be a long drawn out process, but I hope it'll make the blog a bit more appealing to you guys, and make things a bit easier to follow. Feedback is critical for this, so please leave some in the comments section.

Forecast Review: Tuesday: Sunny with increasing clouds later in the day. Low of 21 and a high of 45. Actual: 18/51. Little surprised the high got up to 51, But the clouds didn't build in as fast as I thought they would, and once again I underestimated WAA... need to stop doing that *sigh* .

Tuesday Noon Update

2009-02-17T12:37:00.007-05:00

Looks like our rain showers are going to be moving in a little faster than I expected with my update yesterday. Looks like now we could see rain in London by as early as tonight. Here's a Radar for you to track where the rain is.

I'll have a full update including 5-day Forecast, and Long Range discussion later in the day.
Also I'm going to be working on the site a bit a today so if things change a little don't be scared, just seeing if I can adjust this thing a bit more to my liking.

2000 Hits!

2009-02-16T15:21:00.010-05:00

Before we get to the 5-day forecast, I just want to thank everyone for stopping by the blog: We hit a milestone yesterday... 2000 hits to the blog. I've been tracking traffic on the site since Jan. 25, and in less than one month we've had over 2000 visits, so thank you for taking time and stopping by. Please be sure to tell your friends about us and promote the blog. Back to your regularly scheduled 5-day :P.

Your 5-day Forecast for London, KY:

Tuesday: Sunny with increasing clouds later in the day. Low of 21 and a high of 45. (Lowered a few degrees, thanks for the advice Andy.)

Wednesday: Rain is likely. Low of 37, High of 58.

Thursday: Rain changing to snow, Just after midnight High of 53, Low of 26.

Friday: Partly Cloudy and Cold. Low of 22, High of 33.

Saturday: Snow is possible from a clipper system moving in. Low of 19, High of 32.

Forecast Review:

Monday: Much Cooler, and partly cloudy, with a slight chance of snow. Low of 26, High of 39.

Actual: 24/40 : Not bad so far, shouldn't see the temp get much higher than this so I feel good with yesterdays forecast.

Forecast Discussion:

Video Time!

I'm still trying to find the best way to upload these, so bare with me.

The quick and dirty of the video is that we're going to see a lot of rain and a little snow Wed/Thu, and then could see some decent snow for the weekend. Once again thanks for stopping by, and thanks again for the 2000 hits!

Sunday Late Update

2009-02-16T00:29:00.002-05:00

Monday: Much Cooler, and partly cloudy, with a slight chance of snow. Low of 26, High of 39.

Tuesday: Sunny with increasing clouds later in the day. Low of 26 and a high of 45.

Wednesday: Rain is likely. Low of 37, High of 58.

Thursday: Rain changing to snow, Just after midnight High of 53, Low of 26.

Friday: Partly Cloudy and Cold. Low of 22, High of 33.

Sorry folks, that's all for today, still not feeling great.

Long Range Discussion

2009-02-14T23:59:00.006-05:00

Title of the post says it all, let's talk about the period of the forecast that looks pretty interesting.
And that would be our Wednesday/Thursday storm system. It would appear that right now it's looking like mainly a rain event for London KY. Let's take a look at some of the models

GFS:

GGEM Ensembles:

NAM:

As you can see they're all jumping on a northern track for us, which would mean rain changing to some snow. Highest accumulations would be in the mountains of eastern KY.

Looks like after that we are going much colder, and our next best chance of snow after that would be a clipper system for next weekend.

We'll see how this system develops, clippers usually don't drop much snow around here, but it will be cold enough that this one could be an over achiever.

Teleconnections:

Just a quick show of the NAO and PNA:

For us to get a big winter storm around here, we need a positive PNA, and a negative NAO typically. As you can see we're getting the opposite in the forecast, with an extreme negative PNA and a weak positive NAO. This would suggest a wetter than normal, and slightly warmer than normal pattern setting in for the new couple of weeks.

So there ya have it, have a great day and we'll talk again tomorrow.

Saturday 5-day

2009-02-14T11:32:00.004-05:00

Your 5-day Forecast for London, KY:

Sunday: Mostly Cloudy, going to partly cloudy later. Low of 33, High of 41.

Monday: Much Cooler, and partly cloudy, with a slight chance of snow. Low of 26, High of 39.

Tuesday: Sunny with a slight chance of showers later in the day. Low of 26 and a high of 45.

Wednesday: Rain is likely. Low of 37, High of 60.

Thursday: Rain changing to snow, Just after midnight High of 53, Low of 26.

I apologize for the lack of an update yesterday, I wasn't feeling great after work. I'll have an updated discussion post or video blog later this evening.

Forecast Review:

Friday: Mostly Sunny, with a High of 57, and Low of 35. Actual: 55/29

Saturday: Chance of rain showers. Low of 39, High of 51. 36/52

Okay Friday's Low bust, I expected us to clear out later than we actually did. Pretty happy with Today's forecast.

Video Blog

2009-02-12T22:14:00.002-05:00

A video blog about the next two possible winter weather events in the next week.

2 Parts:

Part One: Weekend/Monday System

Youtube Link

Part Two: Thursday System

Youtube Link

Summary: This weekend through Monday. Rain Changing to light snow possible as mentioned in the 5-day forecast. Possible Winter Storm forming for Thursday, but would initially start as rain changing to snow for London.

Thursday 5-day

2009-02-12T19:51:00.003-05:00

Your 5-day Forecast for London KY:

Friday: Mostly Sunny, with a High of 57, and Low of 35.

Saturday: Chance of rain showers. Low of 39, High of 51.

Sunday: Chance of early rain showers with maybe a flurry or light snow shower mixed in. Otherwise Mostly cloudy. Low of 30, High of 41.

Monday: Much Cooler, and partly cloudy with a chance of snow. Low of 24, High of 39.

Tuesday: Sunny with a Low of 26 and a high of 45.

Forecast Review: Thursday: Should be partly cloudy with a High of 51 and low near 35 Actual: 56/36 Not great but not horrible.

Storm Damage Pictures

2009-02-11T22:12:00.005-05:00

First off I want to say continue to pray for everyone affected by today's storms. Second off, I want to give a big shout out to my buddy Clark Embree at the University of the Cumberlands for these pictures from the damage down there.

As you can see, roofs taken off a building is no laughing matter. I'm very interested to see if the NWS damage survey team goes down to see if it was a Tornado or Straight Line winds. Just looking at the pictures and talking to Clark, my guess is it was straight line winds. We'll know officially in the coming days.

Post Storm Update

2009-02-11T19:41:00.007-05:00

Hey Folks,

Damage reports are coming in from all across the state right now. I'm hearing University of the Cumberlands took a pretty hard hit. Also hearing reports Stinking Creek got hit extremely hard. Say a prayer for everyone affected as they start to clean up, and remember a lot of our fellow Kentuckians to the north just got done cleaning up from the ice storm.

Here's the latest storm damage report from NWS Jackson.

Latest Wind Gust data from KY Mesonet.

Your 5-day Forecast for London KY:

Thursday: Should be partly cloudy with a High of 51 and low near 35

Friday: Mostly Sunny, with a High of 57, and Low of 35.

Saturday: Chance of rain showers. Low of 36, High of 51.

Sunday: Chance of early rain showers with maybe a flurry mixed in early. Otherwise Mostly cloudy. Low of 31, High of 41.

Monday: Much Cooler, and Sunny. Low of 28, High of 39.

Forecast Review: Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms some of which could be strong to severe in the evening. High of 68, Low of 51. Actual: 71/51 Woo hoo, now I feel like I'm getting back in the game. Gotta thank the thunderstorm for cooling the temps off to the low.

Forecast Discussion: Going to keep this short cause I am wore out tonight. I think we remain calm weather wise for the next couple of days, with out next chance of RAIN coming this weekend. We could maybe see a little snow on the back side of this system but not much.

Snow Chance for the middle of Next Week:

I'm not sold on this storm as a big snow maker just yet. Does it have the possibility to put down some snow, sure, is it going to be a big snow, I don't think so... model by model break down.

GFS:

GFS Ensemble:

DGEX:

CMC Ensemble:

Euro:

Okay so if you want to believe Southern KY is going to get a decent snow out of this hope for the GFS Ensembles. However the majority of the other models are far enough north to make me suspect this is going to be a rain to snow event for Southern KY on Wednesday. Folks North of I64 Stand the best chance at getting mainly snow out of it. As you can see GFS surface temps are way too warm down south here in London for Snow out of this even intially. That's all for now, another update heading your way tomorrow.

Tuesday Night Video Blog

2009-02-10T22:03:00.006-05:00

A Video Blog to update you on the severe storm threat for tomorrow:

Youtube Link for Video

And for you folks on the run I suspect the Severe Storms should hit London sometime between 2-4 PM tomorrow, or roughly around 3 PM. Damaging winds are going to be the main threat with this storm.

WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE: Well the good news is it looks like clouds are going to hold in place this morning and early afternoon which should help limit instability, however the squall line still needs to be watched because it could still do some damage. I think the timing for the video post is looking good for right now, but could be maybe a smidgen slow.

Some tools for you track everything today:

Wind Speed & Direction Courtesy of KY Mesonet :
Here's a link to Wind Gusts at KY Mesonet:

Temperature:
Dewpoint:

Radar:

Keep those weather radios on today, and keep weather aware. I'll have another blog post today with a summary of the storms and an updated 5 day Forecast.

Early Evening Update

2009-02-10T18:50:00.004-05:00

Hey everyone, things are still looking on track for our severe weather event tomorrow. Earlier in the afternoon we we're upgrading to a high wind warning, here's the map:

As you can see the entire state is under this warning, which for London runs from Noon tomorrow through 6 AM Thursday morning. The High Wind Warning means we can see an extended period of sustained winds in excess of 40mph and gusts of over 60mph. That's not including wind gusts we could see during thunderstorms. Take the time to secure loose yard furniture, decorations, trash cans, etc. More updates coming throughout the evening.

Severe Weather in Oklahoma

2009-02-10T17:44:00.004-05:00

Multiple tornado warnings in Oklahoma right now.

Here's a link to Live Coverage from KFOR
*Best viewed in Internet Explorer*

Here's a Radar Image I just grabbed out of GRLevel 3

And here's a picture from the 5km NAM Simulated Radar for this time period

Wow, I've never seen the NAM radar verify like that, it nailed those 4 supercells that are training.

Tuesday 5-day

2009-02-10T11:28:00.007-05:00

Your 5-Day Forecast for London KY:

Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms some of which could be strong to severe in the evening. High of 68, Low of 51.

Thursday: Should be partly cloudy with a High of 50 and low near 39.

Friday: Mostly Sunny, with a High of 49, and Low of 35.

Saturday: Chance of rain showers. Low of 36, High of 48.

Sunday: Chance of early rain showers with maybe a flurry mixed in early. Otherwise Mostly cloudy. Low of 31, High of 42.

Forecast Review: Forecast: Partly Cloudy with a chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm after noon. High of 64, Low of 48.

Actual: 67/58 Showers. I'm going to get the low and high at the same time again one of these days, clouds are killing this rookie right now.

Forecast discussion: So my thoughts really haven't changed much from yesterday. We are currently under a high wind watch. This means wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible, as well as sustained winds near 30 mph. Winds could be stronger inside any thunderstorms that develop tomorrow. Here's a map of the watch.

As you can see, the entire state is under this watch. This is a higher level watch than the typical wind advisories we see, so make sure to secure or bring in any lawn furniture or decorations. Also a good idea to bring in those garbage cans cause they can go flying real easy.

The Storm Predicition Center *SPC* Has us under a slight risk for Severe Thunderstorms tomorrow. This might be upgraded later in the day and this map will auto update.

Radar continues to show showers over the state today, so it's going to be interesting to see if they clear out tonight before our 2nd system hits tomorrow. If we get any kind of sunshine tomorrow the storms will be stronger than they will be if we stay overcast the entire day tomorrow.

Here's part of the NWS Jackson's discussion about the storms tomorrow:

MAIN EVENT WILL BE A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

I expect the strongest of the storms to hit London between 1 PM and 7 PM tomorrow. So just stay weather aware tomorrow. And while I'm concerned about these storms, I think the more significant impact will be north and of London, in the areas effected by the ice storm. So there ya have it. I'll have a small update later tonight, until then take care.

Timing and Jet Streak Break Down:

Okay, just to draw things out because words sometimes don't do the trick, I made pictures breaking down the Jet Streak for this storm. Where there's an R, there's rising air, which helps thunderstorms develop, where there's an S, that means sinking air, which hampers storm development.

Wed Afternoon:

Wed Evening:

So initially London starts out in the sinking air, but should be in the rising air by the time the squall line starts. Sim Radar from the NAM supports this.

Wednesday Afternoon:

Wednesday Evening:

Video Blog

2009-02-09T22:01:00.002-05:00

Hey Everyone,

Well since I had some extra time on my hands today, I put together this video blog. I hope you all enjoy it. It contains the forecast discussion for the next week. Please send me some feedback in the comments section. It was my first time and I'm still trying to figure out a better way to put it together, but for now this will have to do, so go easy on me :P. Enjoy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHNvcOq8iv4

Monday Afternoon Update

2009-02-09T16:09:00.004-05:00

Your Update 5-day Forecast for London, KY:

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy with a chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm after noon. High of 64, Low of 48.

Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms some of which could be strong to severe in the evening. High of 67, Low of 49.

Thursday: Should be partly cloudy with a High of 50 and low near 38.

Friday: Mostly Sunny, with a High of 49, and Low of 33

Saturday: Chance of rain showers. Low of 31, High of 42.

Forecast Review: Monday: Partly Sunny with a low of 46 and a high of 69, Actual: Partly Sunny, Low of 37, high of 69 so far. *Facepalm* I count on warm air advection to keep the night time temp up, but it doesn't happen. At least I got closer to the high this time. Lets see if I can get back in the game today, clouds should keep temperatures from falling off tonight as far as it did last night.

UPDATE: Well nailed the high exactly, and it was another record, that's the 3rd day in a row for record temperatures for London. Pretty impressive heat wave we've had the last few days.

I'm currently working on the forecast discussion, It will be up in a seperate post later.

The Week Ahead Discussion

2009-02-09T00:27:00.009-05:00

Hello Folks,

Since the 5-day forecast is already out, it's time to talk about the forecast for a more technical point of view.

The big story for the next 7 days is that we have 3 very vigorous low pressure systems looking to impact the country, each one bringing forecast challenges to meteorologists across the country. The first 5-days of the forecast looks pretty consistent, it's after that things get a bit ugly.

Here is Storm One, which will impact KY on Tuesday.;

GFS:

NAM:

Canadian:

UKMET:

While this storm is currently causing some severe weather in TX, I don't think this is going to be a big ticket item for KY, just some gusty winds and a few showers, maybe a rumble of thunder.

Storm Two, impacting KY for Wed/Thurs:

GFS:

NAM:

CMC:

UKMET:

Euro:

Okay the biggest thing I notice just looking at the surface outputs for this storm, pretty well wound up for a storm this time of year with pressure on some models around 990mb's. We will be in the warm sector for this one, and while the main low will be north of us, I am concerned about the potential for severe weather. Time for some upper air analysis. Since the GFS seems to be in pretty good agreement with all the other models shown here I'm going to use it for the analysis. For those more interested about the 3rd storm or not wanting to get into the technical discussion, please skip ahead.

Jet Stream Level:
500 MB:

850 Speeds:

Okay so are in the front entrance region of the Jet Stream, and with a speed of around 130 knots, leads to good upper level divergence, which supports lift so if storms start popping they will be supported by the upper air dynamics. Second thing we notice is that there is a VORT MAX just north of KY, and vaules of around 25 vorticity above KY, which is pretty good to support upper level divergence, which supports lift, which supports storm development.

Just looking at some of the various severe weather indecies without posting any, things aren't looking great for Supercell development, so this looks like it's mainly going to be a high wind squall line kind of event. Normally I would say this is just kind of run of the mill for us, but for folks that were affected by the ice storm, this is not good. A lot of trees are weakened from the ice and are still falling, so a strong windstorm is not what we need to help the recovery process right now. The best threat of Severe weather right now looks to be somewhere mainly west and north of London. I'm very interested to see how this line develops on Wednesday.

3rd Storm: Okay this one is going to be a headache for a couple of reasons. One the freezing line is going to be near KY, two the models are all over the place with it.

GFS:

DGEX:

CMC:

JMA:

Euro:

As you can see, they agree a storm is coming in the Saturday time frame, but disagree on the placement and strength. If you want snow you want a weaker storm so there won't be as much warm air advection. I personally think for London this is going to be a rain to snow event. Farther north has the potential to be another icy mess, but we're still far enough out I'm not going to forecast lines, or totals yet... just be warned its something we need to keep an eye on the next few days, especially the people that were hit hard by our last ice storm.

So the bottom line: Severe thunderstorm potential is there for Wednesday, followed by a potential winter storm for the weekend. So the moral of the story... ENJOY MONDAY! It's going to be a great day, enjoy it, and just be ready to enter a much busier pattern than the last few days. We'll talk again tomorrow.

A Few More Nice Days

2009-02-08T10:18:00.002-05:00

Your Updated 5-Day Forecast for London, KY:

Monday: Partly Sunny with a low of 46 and a high of 69.

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy with a chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm later in the evening. High of 64, Low of 49.

Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High of 63, Low of 52.

Thursday: A cold front pushes through the area dropping out temperatures. We will have slight rebound in the afternoon, before temperatures start falling again. We should start with a morning High of 50, and Low of 37.

Friday: Mostly Sunny, with a High of 48, and Low of 31.

Forecast Review:

Fri: 24/47 Actual: 22/57
Sat: 36/55 35/67

No excusing that bad a bust on the highs. Simply underestimated the Warm Air Advection and lack of updates over the last two days owned me hard on this one. I'll have a more in depth update later this evening.

Thursday Night 5-day

2009-02-05T23:23:00.004-05:00

Friday: Mostly Sunny with a low of 24 and a high near 47.

Saturday: Partly Sunny with perhaps a scattered shower late. Low of 36 and a high of 55.

Sunday: Showers are possible, rain showers that is, otherwise partly Cloudy with a high of 52 and a low of 44.

Monday: Scattered Rain continues early, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. Low of 46, High of 58.

Tuesday: Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Low of 48, High of 56.

Forecast Review: Forecast: 7/27 Actual: 6/31 : 1 of from the low and 4 off from the high, I'll take it. Missing the high by 4 was due to overestimating the effect of the melting snow and under estimating warm air working in on the back side of high pressure.

Forecast Discussion: Things continue to look pretty tame compared to what we've seen the last few weeks for the next couple of days. The jet steam is setting up in a zonal pattern, meaning it's basically running west to east, here's a map of what the jet stream will look like here in about a day and a half.

Notice how over the eastern half the US things are running west to east, that means relatively quiet, with just a chance of rain due to a warm front checking north through the weekend. This weather dude is looking forward to an easy few days of forecasting while we wait for a pair of big storm systems to get fired up in the southwest and start heading eastward. Here's what the latest GFS is showing.

Tuesday Afternoon:
Thursday Morning:

As you can see our first low doesn't look very impressive. However the storm for Thursday is looking pretty well organized and intense. The potential for a severe weather event is out there, but with the consistency the GFS has had lately, I'm not going to stay anything is set in stone (Not that it ever is). It will be something I'll be watching and updating on the next couple of days just because the possibility is there. Until then enjoy this unseasonably warm weather, and relatively calm period.

Wednesday Update

2009-02-04T23:52:00.002-05:00

Hey guys, just a quick 5-day to keep you up to date. I want to thank everyone for the job well done on the snowfall map. It was far from perfect but I feel like it was a good forecast and did a decent job for what it was.

Thursday:Mostly Sunny with a Low of 7 and a High of 27.

Friday: Mostly Sunny with a low of 24 and a high near 51.

Saturday: Partly Sunny with perhaps a scattered shower late. Low of 36 and a high of 56.

Sunday: Showers are possible, rain showers that is, otherwise partly Cloudy with a high of 57 and a low of 43.

Monday: Scattered Rain continues, otherwise Partly Cloudy. Low of 42, High of 60!

Forecast Review: Forecast: 9/22 1 Actual 12/21 I'm pretty happy with how this forecast went, 3 degrees off the low and one of the high is not bad at all.

Forecast Discussion: Hang in there folks, good times are coming soon! High pressure builds in tomorrow and once we get a nice southerly flow going we'll have warmer temperatures and not to bad sky conditions. Some scattered rain is likely over the weekend as a warm front checks north of the area, this is going to be ahead of a potential big storm system for the middle of next week. I'll have more on that later in the week or during the weekend.

Quick Evening Update

2009-02-03T23:27:00.005-05:00

Just a quick 5 day forecast tonight folks:

Wednesday: Snow is still likely especially out in far eastern KY. Low of 9, High of 22.

Thursday:Mostly Sunny with a Low of 11 and a High of 28.

Friday: Mostly Sunny with a low of 26 and a high near 51.

Saturday: Partly Sunny with perhaps a scattered shower late. Low of 33 and a high of 56.

Sunday: Showers are likely, rain that is, otherwise Mostly Cloudy with a high of 53 and a low of 37.

Forecast Review from yesterday: 22/30 11/33, Ouch hard bust on the low but was not expecting the cold air to move in as fast as it did.

Check the post below for snow info.

UPDATE: Picked up a half an inch of snow here in Oak Hill WV in half an hour. Just crazy, he's some Pics

Mid Tuesday Update

2009-02-03T13:09:00.004-05:00

Just a quick update, a Winter Weather Advisory is out for London, and most of Eastern KY.

I still think my snowfall totals map holds true.

Here's the latest radar to keep track of the snow, I'll have an updated 5-day later tonight.

Monday PM Update

2009-02-02T22:32:00.005-05:00

5-day Forecast:

Tuesday: Snow is Likely mainly after noon. Temperatures will fall throughout the day. High of 30, Low of 22.

Wednesday: Snow is still likely especially out in far eastern KY. Low of 11, High of 22.

Thursday:Mostly Sunny with a Low of 8 and a High of 28.

Friday: Mostly Sunny with a low of 26 and a high near 51.

Saturday: Partly Sunny with perhaps a scattered shower late. Low of 33 and a high of 56.

Snow is going to avoid us tonight, I still believe my call map is fine, and that we will see snow tomorrow. I think it will be mainly after noon, and while the heaviest stays to London's north, we could still easily pick up 1-3"s. So for the time being I'm not going to adjust my call map. Here's some tools to help you keep track of everything.

Your London KY Weather

Sunday Severe Weather Live Blog

Severe Wx Moving Out

Live Severe Weather Blog 2 PM

Severe Weather Possible Saturday

Severe Weather Moving Out

Live Severe Weather Blog

Sever Thunderstorms Possible Today

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Wonderful Weekend Weather

Southern Storm, Southern Snows?

Finally Friday

Quick Sunday Update

Another Winter Storm...

I Like This Winter... It's Exciting

Winter Storm Part Deux

Watching a Winter Storm

Umbrella's Needed Tomorrow

Wintry Rains?

A Look Ahead Vlog

Snow Recap and a Look Ahead

Snowy Saturday

And Now... We Wait

Quick Morning Update

Thursday- Just 24 Hours Left

Snowfall First Call!

Winter Storm Update

Possible Winter Storm for End of the Week

Snowfall Forecast for Thurs-Sat AM

Snowstorm Potential!

Severe Weather

Soggy Pattern Continues

Wet Week Ahead?

Quick Saturday Morning Update:

Thursday Night, Not So Right

Still a Chance of Showers

Deja vu Weather

Welcome to the Unofficial End of Summer

Big Time Rains Tonight

Sunday 5-day

Afternoon Update

Welcome to the Weekend!

Here Comes the Rain

Rainy Days Ahead

The Week Ahead and a Look at WV Flooding

Flooding Rains Continue

Flood Threat Continues

Flooding LIkely Tonight

Dust Off The Rain Gear

Record Heat!

A Taste of Summer

Sunny Skies on the Horizon!

Deja Vu Tuesday

Rainy Monday Ahead

Springy Saturday

Severe Weather Possible Today

Active Couple of Days

Monday Morning Update

Sunday Morning Update

Tuesday Night Update

Severe Weather Possible Today

Wow What a Warm Up!

March Comes in Like a piece of Frozen Lamb

Snow No Go?

Snow Update *And Possible Flooding*

Weekend Snow?

Wednesday Quickie

Monday Update

Sunday Morning Snow Recap

Saturday 5-Day

Saturday AM Update

Welcome to the Weekend

Thursday Quick Post

Wed PM Update

Mobile Update

Wed AM Quick Update

Tuesday Night Update

Something I've been working on

Tuesday Noon Update

2000 Hits!

Snow Update And Possible Flooding