Wet Weekend

Your 5 day forecast for London KY:

A tricky forecast in the extended period, but near term shouldn't be too bad.

Saturday: A low of 38 for your Sat. Morning with Partly cloudy skies. Rain Showers should move in around lunch time and could be on the heavy side at times. Areas already sporting high water need to keep an eye out. Your high tomorrow should be in the upper 40's, we'll say 47, but once the front moves through watch out as temps start to drop and the wind will be fierce, gusts over 30 are possible. A few snowflakes on the backside of this system aren't out of the realm of possibility.

Sunday: A bit on the chilly side with a low of 28 with perhaps a few lingering snow flurries. I think we should end up Mostly Sunny by the end of the day and temps should max out around 35.

Monday: Looks to be a nice day with a low around 27, and a high of 43. We'll start off partly cloudy, but clouds will increase throughout the day ahead of the 2nd clipper system on tap for this forecast period.

Tuesday: The day we go from an early high of 37 to a low of 27 just before Midnight Wednesday. I think we go from rain to snow on the backside, maybe an inch or two if we're lucky.

Wednesday: I think we have a low around 26 and a high around 34, before big time arctic air moves in later in the day, possibly Thursday morning. I think we stay Mostly cloudy, but a clipper system could move through and bring a little snow.

Forecast Discussion:

So the models are pretty consistent and have been through Tuesday for a couple of days now. We have some serious cold air on tap for the end of the week, I'm talking lows in the single digits are possible as far south as London. The models are having a terrible time past Tuesday trying to handle any shortwave lows as they develop in Canada and work down across the trough. I think any kind of precip forecast past Tuesday is a craps shoot at best right now, and will vary greatly if you go from model run to model run for your forecast. I personally think our next chance of precip after Tuesday is Thursday morning as the reinforcing blast of cold air moves in. You want to see how cold we could go, here's a look at temps on Friday:



I'm for sure the cold air is on the way... the question is can we work a little moisture and a lifting mechanism in here to get snow. If we get any snow out of this system before Friday those temps in the single digits go below zero.

Arctic Air INCOMING

Weather wall of text incoming. Time for a break down of what all the current long range models are showing for next Tuesday.

Lets first start with the good ol' GFS Tuesday Early Morning http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06114.gif

Tuesday Late Morning
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06120.gif

Tuesday Afternoon
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06126.gif

GFS shows a low pressure move across the southern half of the Ohio Valley catching us with around .25-.5 inches of liquid precip. However we will be below freezing at 850 mbs the entire time and the surface temps should be near freezing near the KY/TN boarder, and definitely below say above I-64.

This train of thought is supported fairly well by the JMA *Japanese Model*.

http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif

The Euro is also picking up on this storm, but has the low coming in a little faster and farther up north.

Monday Evening
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmwf_850_temp_120.gif

Also notice the extreme cold air coming behind the low on Wednesday, 850 mb temps at -20C in Northern KY and -16C for Southern KY Wednesday Afternoon.

The GFS doesn't bring that kind of Cold in here till Thursday afternoon. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_850_temp_156.gif

Now for the Canadians opinion on the matter.

Monday Evening
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06108.gif

Tuesday Early Morning
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06114.gif

Tuesday Late Morning
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06120.gif

Notice it starts out with the low about as far east as the Euro, but about 200 miles to the south. Also it really holds the precip back to the west as a Low Pressure develops along the gulf coast.

Tuesday Afternoon
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06126.gif

Tuesday Evening
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06132.gif


It then slings the low off the east coast, keeping most of the moisture associated with it away from the bluegrass. It doesn't bring in the coldest air until Tuesday night, a full day faster than the GFS, but at the same time as the Euro, but not as strong.

Summary: So basically the Euro and Canadian are in agreement on the timing of the system, but not the position. Also the Euro isn't even showing the southern Storm developing.

The JMA and GFS seem to be in pretty decent agreement with the storm rolling through Tuesday, and seem to agree on temperatures and QPF.

My Take: What this means for us in my opinion is pretty much what Chris Bailey has been preaching the last couple of days. The cold is coming my friends, and we look to remain in a pretty active pattern. I'm not sure we see a "Old School" snow that drops a foot in day, but we could rack up a couple of snows that don't melt off. We'll just have to wait and see.

Tuesday Night Quickie

Hey Folks,

Sorry to miss a post yesterday, I'm working morning shift this week so my sleeping patterns are all screwed up, and I haven't had much time do anything besides sleep, eat and work :P. Anyways, just a quick 5 day tonight, no review, and maybe just a quick discussion.

Your 5 day forecast for London, KY:

Wednesday: Chance of Snow showers after noon, otherwise mostly cloudy with a high of 42 which will happen early in the morning. Temperatures will fall throughout the day.

Thursday: Partly Sunny with a low of 18, and a high of 38.

Friday: Looking a little tricky at this point. I'm thinking a low 33 with a high 42. We have a low pressure system that will be working through the upper Ohio Valley on Friday, but will not be packing a ton of moisture this far south. My current thoughts are we'll start out Mostly cloudy, have a brief period of rain transition over to snow late in the afternoon.

Saturday: Partly Sunny with a high of 48 and a low of 29.

Sunday: Low of 38 in the morning, followed by a high of 57. Rain Showers are likely.

MIDNIGHT UPDATE:

Looks like we're going to have to crank those temps up about 10 degrees for the high for Today. Temp's have not dropped off at all over the night.