Your 5-day Forecast for London KY:
Sunday: Start off Mostly cloudy with a few lingering flurries and a low of 27. We go to partly sunny by the end of the day with a high of 34.
Monday: A low of 26 starts off the day, with Partly cloudy skies. Clouds build through the day, and we should end up with a high near 36.
Tuesday: Arctic air begins to flood into the area, and I think we hit our high just after midnight, we're going to say 32. Snow showers are likely and I think we end the day with lows in the lower 20's, we'll say 22. 1-3 inches are possible.
Wednesday: I think we catch a break before our next clipper system on Wed. We'll go Mostly cloudy with a high of 24 and a low of 16.
Thursday: BIG COLD Finally arrives. I think snow showers are likely, and could be heavy as we'll have a high of 18 and a low near 0.
Forecast Discussion:
So you noticed I've trimmed back temperatures a bit for the forecast compared to yesterday. I'm leaning on the knowledge of more experienced Meteorologists that think the models are seriously underestimating the cold air for the first half of next week. This is going to be a definite wait and see scenario, but I think we could pick up some decent snowfall during the next couple of weeks.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Friday, January 9, 2009
Wet Weekend
Your 5 day forecast for London KY:
A tricky forecast in the extended period, but near term shouldn't be too bad.
Saturday: A low of 38 for your Sat. Morning with Partly cloudy skies. Rain Showers should move in around lunch time and could be on the heavy side at times. Areas already sporting high water need to keep an eye out. Your high tomorrow should be in the upper 40's, we'll say 47, but once the front moves through watch out as temps start to drop and the wind will be fierce, gusts over 30 are possible. A few snowflakes on the backside of this system aren't out of the realm of possibility.
Sunday: A bit on the chilly side with a low of 28 with perhaps a few lingering snow flurries. I think we should end up Mostly Sunny by the end of the day and temps should max out around 35.
Monday: Looks to be a nice day with a low around 27, and a high of 43. We'll start off partly cloudy, but clouds will increase throughout the day ahead of the 2nd clipper system on tap for this forecast period.
Tuesday: The day we go from an early high of 37 to a low of 27 just before Midnight Wednesday. I think we go from rain to snow on the backside, maybe an inch or two if we're lucky.
Wednesday: I think we have a low around 26 and a high around 34, before big time arctic air moves in later in the day, possibly Thursday morning. I think we stay Mostly cloudy, but a clipper system could move through and bring a little snow.
Forecast Discussion:
So the models are pretty consistent and have been through Tuesday for a couple of days now. We have some serious cold air on tap for the end of the week, I'm talking lows in the single digits are possible as far south as London. The models are having a terrible time past Tuesday trying to handle any shortwave lows as they develop in Canada and work down across the trough. I think any kind of precip forecast past Tuesday is a craps shoot at best right now, and will vary greatly if you go from model run to model run for your forecast. I personally think our next chance of precip after Tuesday is Thursday morning as the reinforcing blast of cold air moves in. You want to see how cold we could go, here's a look at temps on Friday:
I'm for sure the cold air is on the way... the question is can we work a little moisture and a lifting mechanism in here to get snow. If we get any snow out of this system before Friday those temps in the single digits go below zero.
A tricky forecast in the extended period, but near term shouldn't be too bad.
Saturday: A low of 38 for your Sat. Morning with Partly cloudy skies. Rain Showers should move in around lunch time and could be on the heavy side at times. Areas already sporting high water need to keep an eye out. Your high tomorrow should be in the upper 40's, we'll say 47, but once the front moves through watch out as temps start to drop and the wind will be fierce, gusts over 30 are possible. A few snowflakes on the backside of this system aren't out of the realm of possibility.
Sunday: A bit on the chilly side with a low of 28 with perhaps a few lingering snow flurries. I think we should end up Mostly Sunny by the end of the day and temps should max out around 35.
Monday: Looks to be a nice day with a low around 27, and a high of 43. We'll start off partly cloudy, but clouds will increase throughout the day ahead of the 2nd clipper system on tap for this forecast period.
Tuesday: The day we go from an early high of 37 to a low of 27 just before Midnight Wednesday. I think we go from rain to snow on the backside, maybe an inch or two if we're lucky.
Wednesday: I think we have a low around 26 and a high around 34, before big time arctic air moves in later in the day, possibly Thursday morning. I think we stay Mostly cloudy, but a clipper system could move through and bring a little snow.
Forecast Discussion:
So the models are pretty consistent and have been through Tuesday for a couple of days now. We have some serious cold air on tap for the end of the week, I'm talking lows in the single digits are possible as far south as London. The models are having a terrible time past Tuesday trying to handle any shortwave lows as they develop in Canada and work down across the trough. I think any kind of precip forecast past Tuesday is a craps shoot at best right now, and will vary greatly if you go from model run to model run for your forecast. I personally think our next chance of precip after Tuesday is Thursday morning as the reinforcing blast of cold air moves in. You want to see how cold we could go, here's a look at temps on Friday:
I'm for sure the cold air is on the way... the question is can we work a little moisture and a lifting mechanism in here to get snow. If we get any snow out of this system before Friday those temps in the single digits go below zero.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Arctic Air INCOMING
Weather wall of text incoming. Time for a break down of what all the current long range models are showing for next Tuesday.
Lets first start with the good ol' GFS Tuesday Early Morning http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06114.gif
Tuesday Late Morning
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06120.gif
Tuesday Afternoon
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06126.gif
GFS shows a low pressure move across the southern half of the Ohio Valley catching us with around .25-.5 inches of liquid precip. However we will be below freezing at 850 mbs the entire time and the surface temps should be near freezing near the KY/TN boarder, and definitely below say above I-64.
This train of thought is supported fairly well by the JMA *Japanese Model*.
http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif
The Euro is also picking up on this storm, but has the low coming in a little faster and farther up north.
Monday Evening
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmwf_850_temp_120.gif
Also notice the extreme cold air coming behind the low on Wednesday, 850 mb temps at -20C in Northern KY and -16C for Southern KY Wednesday Afternoon.
The GFS doesn't bring that kind of Cold in here till Thursday afternoon. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_850_temp_156.gif
Now for the Canadians opinion on the matter.
Monday Evening
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06108.gif
Tuesday Early Morning
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06114.gif
Tuesday Late Morning
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06120.gif
Notice it starts out with the low about as far east as the Euro, but about 200 miles to the south. Also it really holds the precip back to the west as a Low Pressure develops along the gulf coast.
Tuesday Afternoon
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06126.gif
Tuesday Evening
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06132.gif
It then slings the low off the east coast, keeping most of the moisture associated with it away from the bluegrass. It doesn't bring in the coldest air until Tuesday night, a full day faster than the GFS, but at the same time as the Euro, but not as strong.
Summary: So basically the Euro and Canadian are in agreement on the timing of the system, but not the position. Also the Euro isn't even showing the southern Storm developing.
The JMA and GFS seem to be in pretty decent agreement with the storm rolling through Tuesday, and seem to agree on temperatures and QPF.
My Take: What this means for us in my opinion is pretty much what Chris Bailey has been preaching the last couple of days. The cold is coming my friends, and we look to remain in a pretty active pattern. I'm not sure we see a "Old School" snow that drops a foot in day, but we could rack up a couple of snows that don't melt off. We'll just have to wait and see.
Lets first start with the good ol' GFS Tuesday Early Morning http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06114.gif
Tuesday Late Morning
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06120.gif
Tuesday Afternoon
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06126.gif
GFS shows a low pressure move across the southern half of the Ohio Valley catching us with around .25-.5 inches of liquid precip. However we will be below freezing at 850 mbs the entire time and the surface temps should be near freezing near the KY/TN boarder, and definitely below say above I-64.
This train of thought is supported fairly well by the JMA *Japanese Model*.
http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif
The Euro is also picking up on this storm, but has the low coming in a little faster and farther up north.
Monday Evening
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmwf_850_temp_120.gif
Also notice the extreme cold air coming behind the low on Wednesday, 850 mb temps at -20C in Northern KY and -16C for Southern KY Wednesday Afternoon.
The GFS doesn't bring that kind of Cold in here till Thursday afternoon. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_850_temp_156.gif
Now for the Canadians opinion on the matter.
Monday Evening
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06108.gif
Tuesday Early Morning
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06114.gif
Tuesday Late Morning
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06120.gif
Notice it starts out with the low about as far east as the Euro, but about 200 miles to the south. Also it really holds the precip back to the west as a Low Pressure develops along the gulf coast.
Tuesday Afternoon
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06126.gif
Tuesday Evening
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06132.gif
It then slings the low off the east coast, keeping most of the moisture associated with it away from the bluegrass. It doesn't bring in the coldest air until Tuesday night, a full day faster than the GFS, but at the same time as the Euro, but not as strong.
Summary: So basically the Euro and Canadian are in agreement on the timing of the system, but not the position. Also the Euro isn't even showing the southern Storm developing.
The JMA and GFS seem to be in pretty decent agreement with the storm rolling through Tuesday, and seem to agree on temperatures and QPF.
My Take: What this means for us in my opinion is pretty much what Chris Bailey has been preaching the last couple of days. The cold is coming my friends, and we look to remain in a pretty active pattern. I'm not sure we see a "Old School" snow that drops a foot in day, but we could rack up a couple of snows that don't melt off. We'll just have to wait and see.
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