Winter Storm Watch

Hello again Southeastern KY. Going to skip the 5 day forecast today and get to brass tax, big winter storm is on the way. National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Winter Storm Watch from Monday Evening-Wednesday morning. This means "significant" ice/snow accumulations are possible.

What I'm going to do tonight is break down where I think the Rain Snow Lines are going to be every 6 hours starting at Midnight Tuesday, and go through 6 am Wednesday.

Tuesday Midnight



Tuesday 6am




Tuesday Noon



Tuesday 6pm



Wednesday Midnight


Wednesday 6 am


So basically for the London area, we start off as snow or a mix Tuesday morning, and change over to all rain by Tuesday evening, and then change back over to mix, late Wednesday morning. For those wondering, I'm leaning very heavily on the NAM right now for the track of this storm. I'll have a totals map tomorrow sometime once this storm actually gets formed and I can better visualize what kind of track it's going to take.

Speaking of track, that is going to be the one of two big components determining what kind of precip we see, the other being the intensity of the low pressure. First as you can see with my maps, 20 miles can make a huge difference in precip, so the track of the low is going to play a big part of what kind of precip we see. And the intensity of the low plays the other big part, the more intense the low, the more warm air we see rush in ahead of it, the better chances is a heavy rain event instead of a freezing mess. The weaker the low pressure, the better chance we'll see precip mainly frozen. Keep informed of the weather over the next 48 hours, it could be especially slick Tuesday morning. Bread and Milk runs aren't a bad idea ;P.

And by request, Chance of school in Laurel County being in session by day this week:
Monday: 99%
Tuesday: 50%
Wednesday: 65%
Thursday: 30%
Friday: 40%

Have a great day, and I'll talk to you all again tomorrow.

Wintry Mess on the Way

The title says it all. This is one of those kind of set ups that makes a Meteorologist want to pull his hair out trying to figure out what's going to happen but here's my take.

Your 5 day forecast for London, KY (And surrounding areas):

Monday : The only calm day of the period, Mostly Cloudy with a high of 37 and a low of 28.

Tuesday: When the "Fun" starts. I think we start off with some morning snow, transition over to a mix mess, and then go all rain by the evening. Low of 30, High of 35.

Wednesday: Rinse and repeat of Tuesday, as temperatures cool in the overnight we go from rain back to a wintry mess, then back to rain during the daytime hours, back to snow by the evening. Low of 31, High of 35.

Thursday: At this point I think we go mainly snow, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low of 27, High of 33.

Friday: A few lingering snow showers, colder and cloudy, High of 26, low of 20.


Forecast Discussion:

The models have been bouncing around the last few days like a kid drinking Red Bull on a trampoline. They're finally converging together and as such I'm now ready to take a first shot at the forecast for the week. As our first low pressure approaches, I think we have enough cold air in place to initially keep the precip as all snow. However as the low approaches and warm air advection kicks in, we turn that snow into a wintry mix of Sleet, Freezing Rain, Snow before it finally goes over to all rain late in the day on Tuesday. This thought is supported by both the GFS and NAM:

NAM Tues Morning

NAM Tuesday Evening


GFS Tuesday Morning:


GFS Tuesday Evening:




But then as we get into Wednesday Night and Thursday Morning, as our 2nd system of the week arrives, I think we pull in enough cold air in front of it to keep the precip as all snow. BTW for you weather nerds out there, I think the 0z GFS pulled that 2nd low way to far to the south, I think the 18Z and 12Z had a much better handle on the track.

Bottom Line: This isn't a bread and milk run. This is going to be more of an annoyance than a major winter storm for the London area. Slickk spots are going to be possible as we get those transitions between rain and snow, and I think school cancellations are a good bet for this week. But if you want to see snow, head north, I think the majority of the snow stays north of I-64, where the could see 6"s+. Folks in the area between London and Lexington, watch out for the possibiltiy of significant icing during the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. More updates are coming throughout the weekend and first half of next week, might try to include a narrated model slide show to explain what's going on.

Well at least I saw some snow

I learned a valuable lesson tonight, never underestimate upslope snow in WV. I called for a dusting to a half inch at the six pm news where I filled in tonight. We've got 2 inches so far after Midnight and it's still coming down. I upped my totals to 1-2"s and it still doesn't look like it's going to be enough. Oh well folks, if you want snow come to WV, where a weak clipper system can still drop 2 inches, here are some pictures I took on my way in from the 11 PM News.



My 7 minute drive from the station to my place, took 20 minutes because the side roads and even some of the main highways were covered. Heres hoping you folks back home in Southern KY pick up on a little from Tomorrows system. Call map incoming.

Anyone South of I-64, If you get anything consider yourself extremely lucky, maybe go play the powerball tomorrow, it's going to be worth 160 million. I think you have better odds of winning it than seeing a decent snow in the next few days. Well see how things play out, maybe this one will bust in the other direction of my call map from the other day. Have a great night and I'll have an update forecast post tomorrow evening.