Snow Update *And Possible Flooding*

FLOODING CONCERN UPDATE, 1:30:


Hey folks just a quick update before I head into work. I'm hearing reports of over a half inch of rain in some parts of the area *Thanks Andy and Michael S*. Doppler Radar has shown estimates as much as 2 inches of rain in some parts of the area so far.



If we continue to see heavy rain before the change over to snow some isolated flooding, especially in flood prone areas is possible. Luckily for us we have been relatively dry lately so the ground should be able to soak most of this in. However ponding of water on the roads is possible, so be careful out there while driving. And keep an eye on those creeks. Back to your regularly scheduled post.

*ORIGINAL POST*

Good Saturday everyone, hope you are enjoying your weekend. No new 5-day right now, we've got more important matters to deal with. Things look on track for a pretty good snowstorm for most of southeastern KY. National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a winter weather advisory for all of southeastern KY until Sunday Morning *Which I suspect might be extended past that*. NWS is expecting a general one to three inches, and perhaps some freezing rain which could cause slick travel conditions.


So let's set the playing field for those of you just joining us to find out what's going on.


We have an area of low pressure off to our south east which is responsible for our rain this morning. As it continues to work off to the east it's going to suck in more cold air and turn our precip over to snow. Behind it to our west we have an upper level disturbance moving to the south and east. This is what should bring us our snow. Depending on it's track will determine how much snow we will see, as well as if any of our current precip is turned over to snow. Also a lot of that precip in central KY isn't reaching the ground yet because of the dry air in place at the surface (IE Verga).

Here's a look at Temps and the freezing line as of noon.



That line should continue to push farther tho the south as the day progresses. So how much snow do I think we're going to see?


Map is pretty self explanatory. I hope this right because I'm not going to have a chance to work on it during the day.

Here's all you need to keep ahead of the game today.

Local Radar:



Radar to watch the Upper Level Low:




KY Mesonet Temperatures:


Both Radars are from the fine folks at Intellicast. I'll have enough update after midnight tonight. Stay safe out there and hopefully you get as much snow as you want to see!

Weekend Snow?

Your 5-day Forecast for London KY:

Saturday: Chance of Rain Changing to Snow late. High of of 42, Low of 30

Sunday: Chance of Snow, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. High 34, Low of 22.

Monday: Chane of Scattered Snow Showers, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. High of 26, Low of 17.

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy. High of 35, Low of 18.

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High of 38, Low of 20

Forecast Discussion:

Okay here's the break down. The models are all over the place. Some are taking the storm down to the gulf coast and then up the Atlantic coast. Others are taking a more inland route. The exact track of the low pressure is going to determine exactly what we see, and more importantly how much snow we see. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the track of the storm, so with that said I'm going show a map of where I think the low is going to go, followed by how much snow that would mean for KY.

Track:




Assuming This track is correct, this is what I would expect for totals.


As you can see there will be a very sharp cut off in who gets snow and who doesn't get much at all. I will have a more detailed totals map tomorrow, but at this point it's an effort in futility to go more specific just because the models will continue to bounce around a bit.

Wednesday Quickie

Hey Folks,

I don't have a lot of time tonight so, quick look at your 5 day with some discussion mixed in.

5-day Forecast:

Thursday:

Showers and Thunderstorms likely, some could be strong to severe. Low of 45, Hi of 63.

Friday:

Showers and Thunderstorms continue early, otherwise mostly cloudy. High early in the day of 59, Low of 43.

Here's where the forecast gets really tricky:

Saturday: Chance of Wintry mix, High of of 42, Low of 28.

Sunday: Chance of Snow, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. High 34, Low of 23.

Monday: Chane of Snow, otherwise Mostly Cloudy. High of 26, Low of 19.

Okay since I'm low on time don't have time to post the models... but that's okay because every one is saying something different besides the European and the Canadian. They are saying big snow storm. Do I buy that just yet? No Way!

Is the possibility of a big snow storm on the table, oh you better believe it.. but so is the possibility of an ice storm, all rain, flurries, clouds, and about everything in between. This is the lowest confidence forecast I've ever put together. I would fill just as confident as rolling a dice, throwing darts, flipping a coin or even ASKING A MAGIC 8 BALL about this forecast. So just hang with us folks... I hope to have more answers for you tomorrow night or Friday morning.

So I asked the 8-ball... "Will we see a big snowstorm this weekend?"
Here's what it said:


....