Arctic Air INCOMING

Weather wall of text incoming. Time for a break down of what all the current long range models are showing for next Tuesday.

Lets first start with the good ol' GFS Tuesday Early Morning http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06114.gif

Tuesday Late Morning
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06120.gif

Tuesday Afternoon
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06126.gif

GFS shows a low pressure move across the southern half of the Ohio Valley catching us with around .25-.5 inches of liquid precip. However we will be below freezing at 850 mbs the entire time and the surface temps should be near freezing near the KY/TN boarder, and definitely below say above I-64.

This train of thought is supported fairly well by the JMA *Japanese Model*.

http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif

The Euro is also picking up on this storm, but has the low coming in a little faster and farther up north.

Monday Evening
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmwf_850_temp_120.gif

Also notice the extreme cold air coming behind the low on Wednesday, 850 mb temps at -20C in Northern KY and -16C for Southern KY Wednesday Afternoon.

The GFS doesn't bring that kind of Cold in here till Thursday afternoon. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_850_temp_156.gif

Now for the Canadians opinion on the matter.

Monday Evening
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06108.gif

Tuesday Early Morning
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06114.gif

Tuesday Late Morning
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06120.gif

Notice it starts out with the low about as far east as the Euro, but about 200 miles to the south. Also it really holds the precip back to the west as a Low Pressure develops along the gulf coast.

Tuesday Afternoon
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06126.gif

Tuesday Evening
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ggem/12zggem850mbTSLPp06132.gif


It then slings the low off the east coast, keeping most of the moisture associated with it away from the bluegrass. It doesn't bring in the coldest air until Tuesday night, a full day faster than the GFS, but at the same time as the Euro, but not as strong.

Summary: So basically the Euro and Canadian are in agreement on the timing of the system, but not the position. Also the Euro isn't even showing the southern Storm developing.

The JMA and GFS seem to be in pretty decent agreement with the storm rolling through Tuesday, and seem to agree on temperatures and QPF.

My Take: What this means for us in my opinion is pretty much what Chris Bailey has been preaching the last couple of days. The cold is coming my friends, and we look to remain in a pretty active pattern. I'm not sure we see a "Old School" snow that drops a foot in day, but we could rack up a couple of snows that don't melt off. We'll just have to wait and see.