Your 5 day forecast for London, KY (And surrounding areas):
Monday : The only calm day of the period, Mostly Cloudy with a high of 37 and a low of 28.
Tuesday: When the "Fun" starts. I think we start off with some morning snow, transition over to a mix mess, and then go all rain by the evening. Low of 30, High of 35.
Wednesday: Rinse and repeat of Tuesday, as temperatures cool in the overnight we go from rain back to a wintry mess, then back to rain during the daytime hours, back to snow by the evening. Low of 31, High of 35.
Thursday: At this point I think we go mainly snow, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low of 27, High of 33.
Friday: A few lingering snow showers, colder and cloudy, High of 26, low of 20.
Forecast Discussion:
The models have been bouncing around the last few days like a kid drinking Red Bull on a trampoline. They're finally converging together and as such I'm now ready to take a first shot at the forecast for the week. As our first low pressure approaches, I think we have enough cold air in place to initially keep the precip as all snow. However as the low approaches and warm air advection kicks in, we turn that snow into a wintry mix of Sleet, Freezing Rain, Snow before it finally goes over to all rain late in the day on Tuesday. This thought is supported by both the GFS and NAM:
NAM Tues Morning
NAM Tuesday Evening
GFS Tuesday Morning:
GFS Tuesday Evening:
But then as we get into Wednesday Night and Thursday Morning, as our 2nd system of the week arrives, I think we pull in enough cold air in front of it to keep the precip as all snow. BTW for you weather nerds out there, I think the 0z GFS pulled that 2nd low way to far to the south, I think the 18Z and 12Z had a much better handle on the track.
Bottom Line: This isn't a bread and milk run. This is going to be more of an annoyance than a major winter storm for the London area. Slickk spots are going to be possible as we get those transitions between rain and snow, and I think school cancellations are a good bet for this week. But if you want to see snow, head north, I think the majority of the snow stays north of I-64, where the could see 6"s+. Folks in the area between London and Lexington, watch out for the possibiltiy of significant icing during the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. More updates are coming throughout the weekend and first half of next week, might try to include a narrated model slide show to explain what's going on.
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3 comments:
I agree with your call on the system Shane. I just get so frustrated that southern Ky can't get a snow storm. It seemed like in the 80's and 90's that southern KY always seemed to get the bulk of the snowstorms and we were bullseye for the heavy snow. lexingon would get 3-6" and down here we would get 6-10". For the last 10plus years we have always seemed to be in the WAA and end up with sleet or frz rain. Man this stinks...lets just hope the temps rise quickly on Tuesday so the frz rain doesn't do much damage..would rather have 33* rain then frz rain...but would rather have a foot of snow..lol
I know what you mean Michael, I too remember those awesome snows from my childhood. The only decent snow we had while I was in High School was the 2003 snowstorm that put down about 5"s in 2 hours. I think it's definitely been a climatological shift in storm tracks to the north over the last 10 to 15 years. I'm interested to see if it starts shifting back to the south anytime in the near future. And definitely agree on the 33 degree rain vs freezing rain. I was up in Lexington a couple of days after the major ice storm they had up there a few years back and it looked like a war zone.
The more I look at the models the more I think this will be a cold heavy rain event for the London/Corbin/Somerset area. We should for sure start out as a mix of snow/sleet then transistion to sleet/frz rain before having an hour or two of frz rain..then should change over to cold rain and heavy at times.. Its the second wave tues night into wednesday.. that might be the only hope for snow down here.. I don't really see much with it... up to 2" if lucky. I guess we'll see the models later tonight and tomorrow to see if there is any change
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