Long Range Discussion

Title of the post says it all, let's talk about the period of the forecast that looks pretty interesting.
And that would be our Wednesday/Thursday storm system. It would appear that right now it's looking like mainly a rain event for London KY. Let's take a look at some of the models

GFS:



GGEM Ensembles:



NAM:


As you can see they're all jumping on a northern track for us, which would mean rain changing to some snow. Highest accumulations would be in the mountains of eastern KY.


Looks like after that we are going much colder, and our next best chance of snow after that would be a clipper system for next weekend.


We'll see how this system develops, clippers usually don't drop much snow around here, but it will be cold enough that this one could be an over achiever.

Teleconnections:

Just a quick show of the NAO and PNA:



For us to get a big winter storm around here, we need a positive PNA, and a negative NAO typically. As you can see we're getting the opposite in the forecast, with an extreme negative PNA and a weak positive NAO. This would suggest a wetter than normal, and slightly warmer than normal pattern setting in for the new couple of weeks.

So there ya have it, have a great day and we'll talk again tomorrow.