Still a Chance of Showers

Welcome back to the blog. Today will feature a lower chance at showers than the last few days, but we still could see a few pop up later this afternoon. Here's a radar to track any showers if they do pop.


Highs today should climb up to the low 80s. We're keeping an isolated shots of showers in the forecast now through Saturday, and you can see that on today's update 5-day forecast.



A quick break down of the next week.

-Scattered showers are still possible tomorrow, with more isolated chances Friday and Saturday.

-I lowered highs for Friday-Sunday as it does look we will get caught in a northwestern flow, which can cause more clouds and bring in cooler air.

-I think Sunday will be partly sunny with a chance of showers moving in late.

- As the cold front moves in Monday temperatures will be noticeably cooler, and the chance for heavy rain will be there.


Follow me on Twitter @WxmanShane

Long Range Discussion:

The models continue to struggle with the long range with a big time low pressure trying to cut off over the central of the nation at the end of this weekend. They've now flip flopped positions with the GFS and Euro keeping us dry at the beginning of the next week and the Canadian being the lone wolf showing frontal passage. Here's a look at the models for Monday Morning.

GFS


Euro

Canadian
So my thoughts are now a bit torn. I had agreed with the Euro and GFS for the last two days, but the Canadian is the most consistent, and it has slowed down the speed of which it was trying to move everything through. I'm going to hold steady with the forecast for now but some adjustments will be coming tomorrow depending on how the 0z runs tonight and 12z runs play out tomorrow. The models are notrious for sturggling with cut off lows and this one is going to be no exception. In other long range news here's the latest month 8-14 day outlook from the CPC.


Both maps show us staying cooler and wetter than normal, over the time period. Chris Bailey has been playing up a cool down coming in the middle of the month and the CPC agrees. Just for fun look at the 850mb Temps from the 0z GFS ensemble run this morning.

It's showing a heck of a trough digging out over the eastern half of the US. Those greens over Canada show where the freezing line is at 850 mbs (about 5000 feet up in the atmoshpere.) Could we see temperatures that cold get to the surface by the end of the month. We'll just have to wait and see.

Tropics:

Just because we have a Category 3 Hurricane out in the Atlantic, I'd figure we could go take a look at it.



Here's Hurricane Fred. Current speeds 115 mph, making it a category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Here's a look of Satellite and where the forecast models are taking him.


As you can see, looks like Fred's going to be a fish and just swim in the ocean.

Long two part post today, short update coming tomorrow since it's back to work. Take care!