And Now... We Wait

Good evening everyone just stopping by with a quick update on the snow situation going across the area.


As you can see snow is spreading over southern KY as we speak. I've already heard reports of dusting to an inch in most of south eastern KY. So far my time line from yesterday looks spot on track. Here it is again in case you missed it:

Friday Early Afternoon: Snow should start in Western KY including Bowling Green early afternoon, we will likely experience a period of Virga before the snow actually starts reaching the ground as the air will be very dry as our storm moves in.

Friday Night (After 6:00PM): Snow should be going across most of southern KY by this point, once again it will take a bit for it to get going as the atmosphere will have to moisten up a bit before the snow will hit the ground.

Friday Late (Around Midnight): Heavy snow across most of Southern KY, snow going at this point near the I-64 corridor. Snow getting going at moderate rates across the coal fields of WV. Areas seeing heavy snow at this time could see near white out conditions and along the TN, KY border you could see snowfall rates of 1-2"s per hour.

Saturday Morning (Around dawn): Moderate to heavy snow wrapping up in bowling green but continuing points east to include all of southern WV at this point. Many roads will likely be covered in many areas south of I-64 at this point.

Saturday Mid-day: Heaviest snow now located in far-eastern KY and most of southern WV. Snow really lightening up west of I-65. Light to moderate snowfall continues for area west of I-75 to I-65 through the late evening.

Saturday Evening: Flurries and light snow west of I-75, east of I-75 to the KY/WV/VA border, light to moderate snow, moderate snow hanging tough in southern WV.

Sunday Morning: Snow lingers in WV mountains, while most of southern KY wakes up to clear skies and temperatures in the single digits or possibly below zero.

So time line looks to be on track, however my totals from earlier might have been too conservative. Here's a look at the latest NAM and GFS snowfall totals:

NAM:

GFS:


The NAM is the preferred model this late in the game because of it's higher resolution. Also a great model to look at is the SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast), Let's see what it's latest run has to see for what would normally fall as liquid.

That's showing around .75"-1.00" liquid over much of our area. The snow will likely be falling at something higher than the normal 10-1 frozen to liquid ratio... probably something between 12-1 and 15-1 because of the cold air in place. So we're talking based off the SREF parts of our area could see snowfall totals of 9-15"s! Here is my final call map:


Just some minor tweaks but nothing major as far as southern KY goes. The area to watch is the I-64 corridor in KY. There is some serious dry air in place up there and it's not budging as of now. Until the atmosphere get's moistened up the snow won't fall. 20 miles will make a difference between who get's a ton of snow, and who could see next to none, and it might be the saving grace for some Meteorologists forecasts. So that does it for now. Enjoy the snow and be careful out there, might be a good idea to enjoy just a fun day relaxing indoors tomorrow with your family or playing in the snow. I'll have more updates as needed, until then take care.

PS: Post your snowfall totals in my comments section with your name and city and I'll plot em up in Google Earth to see how my forecast pans out.