Winter Storm Update

Good morning everyone and welcome to your Wednesday, 48 hours from what could possibly be a major winter storm to affect southeastern KY. It's time to get you caught up on what's happened with the models since my video blog yesterday and to start to talk some totals. Lets start out by mapping out the latest run of the GFS.

Thursday Morning:



Friday Morning:


Friday Evening:


Saturday Morning:



So here's how it all looks to play out. A weak cold front moves through the area tomorrow, possibly bringing us some light rain or snow showers. The main thing it will do to set the stage for our winter storm on Friday is to usher in some colder air. By late Friday morning snow showers should fire up along a frontal boundary ahead of the actual low pressure system. Where this boundary sets up is critical to the entire storm and how much of what we'll see. If it sets up just to our south over say middle Tennessee, we should see some heavy snow fall accumulation. If it sets up say along the Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama border, we would see less snowfall. If by some odd chance it sets up say on top of us, that would lead to some icing concerns. Right now all the model data is keeping the boundary setting up to our south, so it looks like we'll see snow, the question is how much. 50 miles can make all the difference in this kind of set up, so I will be keeping an eye on the track over the next two days. Here is the latest predictions for snowfall form the 6z NAM and GFS models.

NAM:


GFS:



Notice the GFS is going just a bit heavier than the NAM on totals, but both are showing a good hit for Southern Kentucky. I think right now the best snow fall accumulations will set up somewhere between I-40 in Tennessee and I-64 in Kentucky. The question is exactly where that heavy snow band sets up. As far as southern Kentucky goes, right now I would say we will likely see somewhere between 6-12"s. I will put a first official call map out later this afternoon after I get a chance to look at all the 12z model data. That update should come sometime between 3-6 this afternoon, and will likely be accompanied by a video blog. That's all for now, take care and we will talk again soon!

PS: For my friends in West Virginia reading this from Facebook: I think most of southern WV sees at least 6"s of snow from this, you'll see my first call map a bit earlier today on WOAY @ Noon.