Hey folks, I'm getting ready to watch the RNC and specifically Sarah Palin's speech. So going to keep the blog post short this evening.
Your 5-day Forecast for the greater London, KY area:
Thursday AM: Foggy, clearing later in the morning with a low of 64.
Thursday PM: Partly Sunny with a high of 89.
Friday AM: Increasing clouds, low of 66
Friday PM: An approaching cold front and the remains of Gustav will work in from the west. Therefore we are going with a 30% chance of showers in the evening, with a high near 86.
Saturday AM: Better chance of showers, going 60% with a scattered coverage, 65 for your low.
Saturday PM: Chance of showers remains, going about 40%, 83 for your high. Saturday will most likely not be a wash out but there could be periods of moderate showers.
Sun AM: Isolated Showers still possible, Low near 63.
Sun PM: Shower chances diminish leaving us partly cloudy, with a high near 82.
Mon AM: Partly cloudy and cooler, low of 59.
Mon PM: Sunny with a high of 84.
Forecast review from yesterday:
Me: 68 91
NWS: 66 91
Accuweather: 66 90
Weathechannel: 64 91
WKYT: 68 91
WLEX: 67 92
WTVQ: 69 93
WYMT: 65 90
Actual: 63 90
Ouch! Low busted hard for everyone except WYMT. High was nailed by WYMT and Accuweather. Go Jimmy Caldwell, you had the best forecast for London Yesterday.
Misc. Comments:
Models have shifted to the front being a bit more wet than they expected yesterday. I don't think Saturday will be a wash out, there will most likely be a band of showers move through and then we'll dry up. Ike is absolutely blowing up in the tropics right now, he's up to Cat 3 with winds of 115mph as of 8PM. I'll have a more detailed post coming tomorrow. Until then have a good one.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Hanna's a hurtin and Warm Temps stick around till the weekend
Your 5 day forecast for the Greater London, KY area:
Wednesday AM: Foggy likely, clearing to partly sunny with a low of 68.
Wednesday PM: 91 for your high, with partly sunny skies.
Thursday AM: Fog once again going to be in the area, clearing later in the morning with a low of 67.
Thursday PM: Partly Sunny with a high of 90.
Friday AM: Partly cloudy with a low of 66.
Friday PM: Partly sunny, but clouds gathering through out the day as moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Hanna approach bringing us a slight chance of showers, a high of 86.
Saturday AM: Slight chance of Scattered showers throughout the area from Hanna, with a low of 64.
Saturday PM: 84 with a slight chance of scattered showers.
Sunday AM: A slight chance of a few lingering showers 63 for your low.
Sunday PM: 83 with a slight chance of showers sticking around, otherwise mostly cloudy.
Forecast Discussion:
Oh the pains of an approaching Cold Front, and two dying tropical systems. The forecast models do not have a good handle on this situation. The GFS shows the front approach with the leftovers from Gustav swing north of the bluegrass keeping us dry except for what Hanna brings us on Saturday. The Candaian which I've been looking at a bit closer than normal since I started blogging is showing the front moving in, slowing down and drying up before it gets to London. The European is taking Gustavs left overs north of us and moving Hanna in on Saturday. Even the usually reliable NAM is being a bit troublesome with the last frame in it's 1800z run just drying up the front as it passes over. Now granted well know more in a day or two since it's more of a short range model when compared to the GFS, Euro and Canadian. I can believe the solution of the front checking north of us due to High Pressure which will be off the Atlantic coast. I have a harder time believing the front crashes through and dries before it gets to eastern Kentucky when we'll have a southerly wind coming from the eastern gulf and Hanna approaching.
So what's an aspiring meteorologist to do? At this point I'm calling for a slight chance of showers for Saturday and Sunday at this point. I honestly feel more confident about rain on Saturday than on Sunday. I personally think the front doesn't check north, I think it slides through with just enough moisture to give us a few showers around the region.
Forecast Review from yesterday:
Me: 70 90
NWS: 67 90
Accuweather: 63 90
Weathechannel: 65 90
WKYT: 67 91
WLEX: 69 92
WTVQ: 68 92 (Note: This was not updated as of 10:00 PM Monday evening so went with what was posted for Tuesday)
WYMT: 65 91
Actual: 69 90
Not bad, nailed the high and one degree off from the low. Congrats to WLEX for nailing the low. I just want to point out that Accuweather, the Weather Service, and the NWS, have consistently forecasted too low for the low this week. For a forecasting service that makes a point forecast for this area I find that a bit disappointing. The Lexington stations which are forecasting for Lexington are doing a better job of providing the people of London with a forecast than these services which point forecast for London. So kudo's to the Lexington stations.
Tropical Discussion:
4 Systems at once time, to quote Doc Brown from Back to the Future... GREAT SCOTT! Google Earth barely was able to squeeze all 4 into one frame.
So a quick note on the departing Gustav. I'm glad it wasn't as strong as it was forecasted, I hope that people still evacuate the next time a possible major hurricane heads towards the gulf. And Gustav is putting a hurting on Hanna, big time via some out flow seen in the picture below.
So basically what's happening is the outflow from Gustav is blasting into the side of Hanna, it's like one train T-boning another, it's not pretty and it causes a lot of havoc. The outflow from Gustav is basically the exhaust coming out of his tail pipes. This exhaust is dry as most of the moisture has been sucked out to fuel them storm. As Gustav continues to weaken this outflow should shut off and weaken allowing Hanna to reform, as long as she doesn't die before Gustav does. The official NHC track takes Hanna up across the Carolina's Friday evening through Saturday.
And finally to end this post a look at Ike and Josephine and their forecast tracks from the NHC.
So that's it for now. I'll have an update forecast tomorrow and hopefully I'll have a better idea on your weekend. Until next time, have a good one!
Wednesday AM: Foggy likely, clearing to partly sunny with a low of 68.
Wednesday PM: 91 for your high, with partly sunny skies.
Thursday AM: Fog once again going to be in the area, clearing later in the morning with a low of 67.
Thursday PM: Partly Sunny with a high of 90.
Friday AM: Partly cloudy with a low of 66.
Friday PM: Partly sunny, but clouds gathering through out the day as moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Hanna approach bringing us a slight chance of showers, a high of 86.
Saturday AM: Slight chance of Scattered showers throughout the area from Hanna, with a low of 64.
Saturday PM: 84 with a slight chance of scattered showers.
Sunday AM: A slight chance of a few lingering showers 63 for your low.
Sunday PM: 83 with a slight chance of showers sticking around, otherwise mostly cloudy.
Forecast Discussion:
Oh the pains of an approaching Cold Front, and two dying tropical systems. The forecast models do not have a good handle on this situation. The GFS shows the front approach with the leftovers from Gustav swing north of the bluegrass keeping us dry except for what Hanna brings us on Saturday. The Candaian which I've been looking at a bit closer than normal since I started blogging is showing the front moving in, slowing down and drying up before it gets to London. The European is taking Gustavs left overs north of us and moving Hanna in on Saturday. Even the usually reliable NAM is being a bit troublesome with the last frame in it's 1800z run just drying up the front as it passes over. Now granted well know more in a day or two since it's more of a short range model when compared to the GFS, Euro and Canadian. I can believe the solution of the front checking north of us due to High Pressure which will be off the Atlantic coast. I have a harder time believing the front crashes through and dries before it gets to eastern Kentucky when we'll have a southerly wind coming from the eastern gulf and Hanna approaching.
So what's an aspiring meteorologist to do? At this point I'm calling for a slight chance of showers for Saturday and Sunday at this point. I honestly feel more confident about rain on Saturday than on Sunday. I personally think the front doesn't check north, I think it slides through with just enough moisture to give us a few showers around the region.
Forecast Review from yesterday:
Me: 70 90
NWS: 67 90
Accuweather: 63 90
Weathechannel: 65 90
WKYT: 67 91
WLEX: 69 92
WTVQ: 68 92 (Note: This was not updated as of 10:00 PM Monday evening so went with what was posted for Tuesday)
WYMT: 65 91
Actual: 69 90
Not bad, nailed the high and one degree off from the low. Congrats to WLEX for nailing the low. I just want to point out that Accuweather, the Weather Service, and the NWS, have consistently forecasted too low for the low this week. For a forecasting service that makes a point forecast for this area I find that a bit disappointing. The Lexington stations which are forecasting for Lexington are doing a better job of providing the people of London with a forecast than these services which point forecast for London. So kudo's to the Lexington stations.
Tropical Discussion:
4 Systems at once time, to quote Doc Brown from Back to the Future... GREAT SCOTT! Google Earth barely was able to squeeze all 4 into one frame.
So a quick note on the departing Gustav. I'm glad it wasn't as strong as it was forecasted, I hope that people still evacuate the next time a possible major hurricane heads towards the gulf. And Gustav is putting a hurting on Hanna, big time via some out flow seen in the picture below.
So basically what's happening is the outflow from Gustav is blasting into the side of Hanna, it's like one train T-boning another, it's not pretty and it causes a lot of havoc. The outflow from Gustav is basically the exhaust coming out of his tail pipes. This exhaust is dry as most of the moisture has been sucked out to fuel them storm. As Gustav continues to weaken this outflow should shut off and weaken allowing Hanna to reform, as long as she doesn't die before Gustav does. The official NHC track takes Hanna up across the Carolina's Friday evening through Saturday.
And finally to end this post a look at Ike and Josephine and their forecast tracks from the NHC.
So that's it for now. I'll have an update forecast tomorrow and hopefully I'll have a better idea on your weekend. Until next time, have a good one!
Monday, September 1, 2008
Gustav below expectations, Hanna on the Horizon and the 9-1-08 Forecast
Your 5 day Forecast for London, KY and the surrounding area:
Tuesday AM: Partly cloudy with a chance of an isolated shower. Low of 70.
Tuesday PM: Isolated showers will be possible but we should remain partly cloudy as some of the feeder bands from Gustav wrapping around into the bluegrass. A High near 90.
Wednesday AM: Fog is likely in the morning other wise Partly Cloudy with a low of 67.
Wednesday PM: Partly Sunny with a high near 89.
Thursday AM: Partly Cloudy with a low of 64.
Thursday PM: Partly Sunny with a high of 88.
Friday AM: Partly Cloudy with a low of 63.
Friday PM: Isolated Showers, otherwise partly sunny with a high of 86.
Saturday AM: Scattered Showers with a low of 64.
Saturday PM: Scattered Showers with a high of 84.
Forecast Discussion:
So High pressure is going to remain in control of our weather till the end of the week. However I'm concerned with some of the outer bands from Gustav making there way to Southern KY and possibly triggering off some showers, or at the very least clouding up our skies a bit. I'll be keeping an eye on this and will adjust my forecast tomorrow accordingly. The big question in the forecast is when and what do we see of Gustav and Hanna. Right now models aren't showing much of an impact from Gustav or the frontal system that is going to catch it and drive it out of the gulf. Models are showing Hanna affecting us as early as Friday, I'll have more on her in the tropical discussion.
Forecast Review:
Me: 68 91
NWS: 67 89
Accuweather: 64 90
Weathechannel: 67 91
WKYT: 92 65
WLEX: 65 90
WTVQ: 66 91
WYMT: 66 90
Actual: 68 91
BINGO! Nailed the high and low today. Weather Channel also hit the high but once again everyone else under estimated the low, a pattern I've noticed over the last few days.
Tropical Discussion:
The tropics are on fire right now, we have 3 named storms as of this posting. Hurricane Gustav which hit the coast of Louisiana as a Category 2 this morning. So far damage has been minimal and hopefully it will stay that way.
Hanna is finally starting to get her act and made it up to Hurricane strength earlier in the day. She's forecast to hit near the Georgia/South Carolina coast as a category 2 storm on Friday afternoon. Some of the models are blowing this up much stronger than a Cat 2, so I'll keep an eye on her and give you any updates as they become available.
And finally we have Ike churning out in the Atlantic as a tropical storm and will be at about where Hanna is right now this Saturday. So there ya have it, your daily dose of weather forecast and a little talk about the tropics. I return to my part time job tomorrow so my update might be just a little later than normal. I'm still looking for a job in Meteorology and will be sending more resumes out this week so wish me luck. Until next time I hope you have a good one.
Tuesday AM: Partly cloudy with a chance of an isolated shower. Low of 70.
Tuesday PM: Isolated showers will be possible but we should remain partly cloudy as some of the feeder bands from Gustav wrapping around into the bluegrass. A High near 90.
Wednesday AM: Fog is likely in the morning other wise Partly Cloudy with a low of 67.
Wednesday PM: Partly Sunny with a high near 89.
Thursday AM: Partly Cloudy with a low of 64.
Thursday PM: Partly Sunny with a high of 88.
Friday AM: Partly Cloudy with a low of 63.
Friday PM: Isolated Showers, otherwise partly sunny with a high of 86.
Saturday AM: Scattered Showers with a low of 64.
Saturday PM: Scattered Showers with a high of 84.
Forecast Discussion:
So High pressure is going to remain in control of our weather till the end of the week. However I'm concerned with some of the outer bands from Gustav making there way to Southern KY and possibly triggering off some showers, or at the very least clouding up our skies a bit. I'll be keeping an eye on this and will adjust my forecast tomorrow accordingly. The big question in the forecast is when and what do we see of Gustav and Hanna. Right now models aren't showing much of an impact from Gustav or the frontal system that is going to catch it and drive it out of the gulf. Models are showing Hanna affecting us as early as Friday, I'll have more on her in the tropical discussion.
Forecast Review:
Me: 68 91
NWS: 67 89
Accuweather: 64 90
Weathechannel: 67 91
WKYT: 92 65
WLEX: 65 90
WTVQ: 66 91
WYMT: 66 90
Actual: 68 91
BINGO! Nailed the high and low today. Weather Channel also hit the high but once again everyone else under estimated the low, a pattern I've noticed over the last few days.
Tropical Discussion:
The tropics are on fire right now, we have 3 named storms as of this posting. Hurricane Gustav which hit the coast of Louisiana as a Category 2 this morning. So far damage has been minimal and hopefully it will stay that way.Hanna is finally starting to get her act and made it up to Hurricane strength earlier in the day. She's forecast to hit near the Georgia/South Carolina coast as a category 2 storm on Friday afternoon. Some of the models are blowing this up much stronger than a Cat 2, so I'll keep an eye on her and give you any updates as they become available.And finally we have Ike churning out in the Atlantic as a tropical storm and will be at about where Hanna is right now this Saturday. So there ya have it, your daily dose of weather forecast and a little talk about the tropics. I return to my part time job tomorrow so my update might be just a little later than normal. I'm still looking for a job in Meteorology and will be sending more resumes out this week so wish me luck. Until next time I hope you have a good one.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
