Wednesday AM: Foggy likely, clearing to partly sunny with a low of 68.
Wednesday PM: 91 for your high, with partly sunny skies.
Thursday AM: Fog once again going to be in the area, clearing later in the morning with a low of 67.
Thursday PM: Partly Sunny with a high of 90.
Friday AM: Partly cloudy with a low of 66.
Friday PM: Partly sunny, but clouds gathering through out the day as moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Hanna approach bringing us a slight chance of showers, a high of 86.
Saturday AM: Slight chance of Scattered showers throughout the area from Hanna, with a low of 64.
Saturday PM: 84 with a slight chance of scattered showers.
Sunday AM: A slight chance of a few lingering showers 63 for your low.
Sunday PM: 83 with a slight chance of showers sticking around, otherwise mostly cloudy.
Forecast Discussion:
Oh the pains of an approaching Cold Front, and two dying tropical systems. The forecast models do not have a good handle on this situation. The GFS shows the front approach with the leftovers from Gustav swing north of the bluegrass keeping us dry except for what Hanna brings us on Saturday. The Candaian which I've been looking at a bit closer than normal since I started blogging is showing the front moving in, slowing down and drying up before it gets to London. The European is taking Gustavs left overs north of us and moving Hanna in on Saturday. Even the usually reliable NAM is being a bit troublesome with the last frame in it's 1800z run just drying up the front as it passes over. Now granted well know more in a day or two since it's more of a short range model when compared to the GFS, Euro and Canadian. I can believe the solution of the front checking north of us due to High Pressure which will be off the Atlantic coast. I have a harder time believing the front crashes through and dries before it gets to eastern Kentucky when we'll have a southerly wind coming from the eastern gulf and Hanna approaching.
So what's an aspiring meteorologist to do? At this point I'm calling for a slight chance of showers for Saturday and Sunday at this point. I honestly feel more confident about rain on Saturday than on Sunday. I personally think the front doesn't check north, I think it slides through with just enough moisture to give us a few showers around the region.
Forecast Review from yesterday:
Me: 70 90
NWS: 67 90
Accuweather: 63 90
Weathechannel: 65 90
WKYT: 67 91
WLEX: 69 92
WTVQ: 68 92 (Note: This was not updated as of 10:00 PM Monday evening so went with what was posted for Tuesday)
WYMT: 65 91
Actual: 69 90
Not bad, nailed the high and one degree off from the low. Congrats to WLEX for nailing the low. I just want to point out that Accuweather, the Weather Service, and the NWS, have consistently forecasted too low for the low this week. For a forecasting service that makes a point forecast for this area I find that a bit disappointing. The Lexington stations which are forecasting for Lexington are doing a better job of providing the people of London with a forecast than these services which point forecast for London. So kudo's to the Lexington stations.
Tropical Discussion:
4 Systems at once time, to quote Doc Brown from Back to the Future... GREAT SCOTT! Google Earth barely was able to squeeze all 4 into one frame.
So a quick note on the departing Gustav. I'm glad it wasn't as strong as it was forecasted, I hope that people still evacuate the next time a possible major hurricane heads towards the gulf. And Gustav is putting a hurting on Hanna, big time via some out flow seen in the picture below.
So basically what's happening is the outflow from Gustav is blasting into the side of Hanna, it's like one train T-boning another, it's not pretty and it causes a lot of havoc. The outflow from Gustav is basically the exhaust coming out of his tail pipes. This exhaust is dry as most of the moisture has been sucked out to fuel them storm. As Gustav continues to weaken this outflow should shut off and weaken allowing Hanna to reform, as long as she doesn't die before Gustav does. The official NHC track takes Hanna up across the Carolina's Friday evening through Saturday.
And finally to end this post a look at Ike and Josephine and their forecast tracks from the NHC.
So that's it for now. I'll have an update forecast tomorrow and hopefully I'll have a better idea on your weekend. Until next time, have a good one!
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