Your 5 Day Forecast for London KY:
Friday: A Clipper system crosses to our north, bringing us a chance of some light snow, otherwise we'll be mostly cloudy with a high of 32 and low of 27. Total Accumulation for London nothing to 1".
Saturday: A few morning snow showers wrap up and leaves us with partly cloudy skies by the end of the day. A low of 19, and high of 35.
Sunday: Sunny with a high near 50 and low of 32.
Monday: Start the day as Partly Cloudy, clouds increase and we could end the day with rain changing to snow. High of 41Low of 26.
Tuesday: Snow is Likely, possibly heavy snow. High of 25, Low of 18.
Forecast Review for Today: Forecast 25/33 Actual: 26/ 36 :Not a bad day of forecasting, 1 off the low, 3 off the high, I'll take it.
Forecast Discussion: No change in my opinions of the short term. Slight chance of snow for tomorrow due to a clipper moving through. An absolutely gorgeous weekend and should help the folks up north clean up and thaw out a bit before the mess that starts next week.
Winter Storm Possibilities: The Models are still holding on to our winter storm for next week. At this point it's game on, it just depends what are we in store for. There is still a lot of uncertainty on to the track of this storm, and as always track is everything for winter storms.
Right now the models aren't agreeing on a track. The GFS is going with a coastal runner:
The Japanese Model is also agreeing with the GFS on the coastal runner:
The Canadian is taking a more westerly track, taking it up the east side of the Appalachians:
The Euro is taking the storm right up the spine of the appalachains, which just doesn't happen often so I'm really discounting this run of the Euro:
So as you can see there is a couple of hundred mile spread in the track of the storm according to the 4 major global models. Which path do we go with, I say for now let's take a blend of the paths and see where that ends up.
My take on an average Track:
Okay so assuming this is the track of the low, what would the impact be, here's a map for that.
Major Impact: Major snowfall totals, generally more than 8-12"s of snow. Basically it would close roadways, and just make life a general pain for a couple of days
Significant Impact: This would be somewhere in the range of 4-10"s of snow. Once again roads and schools closed, and especially for central KY this would be bad as they're still cleaning up from the ice storm.
Moderate Impact: Less than 4"s of snow, schools closed maybe for a day or two, main highways should be passable.
That's just my take on the storm if it were to follow that track, not a forecast as to what will happen. My personal take on this track, is that it might be just a smidgen to far to the east, I'm thinking this storm will probably run up the east side of the mountains, which would push those lines farther west. We'll see what happens. Thanks for stopping by the blog, I'll have an update either tonight or tomorrow evening.
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3 comments:
Good write up there Shane. Looking at the 18z GFS. Man does it show some back lash snowshowers and squalls lasting for a long time!... Given the dynamics...I'm going to say(according to 18z GFS) that a line from Glasgow to Lexington to South East Cincinnati, points east and southeast of that line are in the zone of 6-10" with higher amounts in the border counties with WV and Va. This has me fired up for sure. I just hope the nasty wind this storm will have won't do too much for damages to trees and powerlines in central and NE KY.
My personal take on this track, is that it might be just a smidgen to far to the east, I'm thinking this storm will probably run up the east side of the mountains, which would push those lines farther west. We'll see what happens. Thanks for stopping by the blog, I'll have an update either tonight or tomorrow evening.
Those were comments on your post before the 18z..lol. Funny thing is..is that it may play out that way. LOOK OUT IF IT DOES. But if it tracks west of mountains... Im moving North..lol
Shane, great site. I like your thoughts on the weather, so I will probably add you to my list of favorites.
Hope you don't mind if I drop by to chat from time to time.
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