I Like This Winter... It's Exciting

To quote a line from the most recent adaption of Star Trek, this winter has been nothing short of historic across the eastern half of the US. We've seen some decent snowfall's this winter, enough to definitely run the school calendar back into June, and it looks like the hits are going to keep on coming. Let's talk about what's heading our way for Sunday into Monday. Today's model of choice for showing the situation is the GFS:


Sunday Afternoon:

Monday Early Morning:

Monday Late Morning:

Monday Afternoon:

So here's what's looking to be heading our way. A low pressure system will come out of Canada over the weekend and head towards the Ohio Valley this weekend. As it approaches it begins to intensify and tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture as it moves in KY. We already have an Arctic air mass and snow pack in place so temperatures will be cold enough for an all snow event. This storm is likely be under played at the surface right now as upper level dynamics look awesome to say the least. With upper level dynamics look so well and temperatures being very cold, and gulf moisture getting pulled into the equation, you are looking at a recipe for a possible solid snowstorm for most of KY. Here's what the latest GFS accumulation map looks like through Tuesday morning at 7 AM:



However, I think this map might be under doing totals and might be a bit to far north with where it wants to set up the heaviest band of precipitation. Let's look at what the storm is looking like it would drop if it we're all liquid.




That map shows between a quarter inch and half inch of liquid from Sunday to Tuesday morning. Now following the old ten to one rule, that'd be a good 2-5" snow for most of KY. However... with the air being as cold as it going to with this storm... snowfall ratios will likely start at 10:1 but end possibly as high as 25:1. If that happens you could tack a good extra 2-4"s on to that number if not more. This is a situation that I will closely be monitoring over the next couple of days. Until then take care.